In this installment of our NFL update, let’s look at key NFL betting trends through the first third of the season, summarize NFL Week 6 action, and preview NFL Week 7 games before closing with our NFL betting picks.
NFL Week 6 summary
NFL Week 6 action was full of surprises. Let’s look at how each game compared to the closing NFL betting lines and totals to better inform your online sports betting in the coming weeks.
Atlanta Falcons 40, Minnesota Vikings 23
Closing line Vikings -3.5; closing total 53.5
Falcons +20.5 ATS; OVER +9.5
Baltimore Ravens 30, Philadelphia Eagles 28
Closing line Ravens -10; closing total 46.5
Eagles +8 ATS; OVER 11.5
Chicago Bears 23, Carolina Panthers 16
Closing line Panthers -2; closing total 45
Bears +9 ATS; UNDER -6
Indianapolis Colts 31, Cincinnati Bengals 27
Closing line Colts -7.5; closing total 46
Bengals +3.5 ATS; OVER +12
Pittsburgh Steelers 38, Cleveland Browns 7
Closing line Steelers -3; closing total 50
Steelers +28 ATS; UNDER -5
Denver Broncos 18, New England Patriots 12
Closing line Patriots -7; closing total 44
Broncos +13 ATS; UNDER -14
Detroit Lions 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 16
Closing line Lions -3; closing total 53
Lions +15 ATS; UNDER -3
Tennessee Titans 42, Houston Texans 36
Closing line Titans -3.5; closing total 52
Titans +2.5 ATS; OVER +26
New York Giants 20, Washington Football Team 19
Closing line Giants -1.5; closing total 42
Washington +0.5 ATS; UNDER -3
Miami Dolphins 24, New York Jets 0
Closing line Dolphins -8.5; closing total 46.5
Dolphins +15.5 ATS; UNDER -22.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Green Bay Packers 10
Closing line Packers -2.5; closing total 55
Buccaneers +30.5 ATS; UNDER -7
San Francisco 49ers 24, Los Angeles Rams 16
Closing line Rams -2.5; closing total 51.5
49ers +10.5 ATS; UNDER -11.5
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Buffalo Bills 17
Closing line Chiefs -5.5; closing total 55
Chiefs +3.5 ATS; UNDER -12
Arizona Cardinals 38, Dallas Cowboys 10
Closing line Cowboys -1; closing total 56
Cardinals +29 ATS; UNDER -8
The Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, and Seattle Seahawks had their bye in NFL Week 6.
Key NFL Week 6 sports betting trends
Key NFL betting trends to keep in mind after NFL Week 6 include the following:
- Favorites went 5-9 against the spread this week, and are now 42-48-1 on the season, meaning NFL betting lines have been good for many sportsbook casino bottom lines so far this season.
- With the Packers’ blowout loss against the Buccaneers, there are no longer any teams undefeated against the spread. The Cowboys and Jets remain winless against the spread.
- More games went under their closing total this week, 10-4, though overs still lead on the season (48-43).
- Road underdogs are covering at a 57% clip (34-26 on the season); road teams, in general, are covering 56% (50-40-1).
Several teams have also been especially notable so far this season for NFL betting:
- The Raiders and Saints have seen all 5 games go over their closing totals. (The Bills had their first under this past week; the Texans, Titans, and Seahawks also each have only one under on the season.)
- The Cardinals are the only team to go under in each of their games, despite being 4-2 against the spread on the season.
- Teams averaging 30 points per game or more: Seahawks (33.8 ppg), Titans (32.8 ppg), Packers (32.4 ppg), Steelers (31.2 ppg), Saints (30.6 ppg), and Raiders (30.2 ppg).
- The Ravens (17.3 ppg), Cardinals (18.7 ppg), Steelers (18.8 ppg), Dolphins (18.8 ppg), Rams (19.0 ppg), Colts (19.2 ppg), and Bears (19.3 ppg) are all excelling on defense.
NFL Week 7 preview
Four teams have their bye week in NFL Week 7: The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings. Let’s preview the thirteen games scheduled this week, as well as NFL betting lines and key information for smart online sports betting.
NFL betting picks
These are our picks for NFL Week 7 action, as well as key insights to inform your NFL betting odds:
New York Giants (1-5, 0-3 away) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-4-1, 0-2-1 home)
Current line: Eagles -4.5, over/under 45
Neither team has played well this season, but the Eagles are the current favorite to win the awful NFC East.
Our pick: Eagles 27, Giants 17
Carolina Panthers (3-3, 2-1 away) at New Orleans Saints (3-2, 2-1 home)
Current line: Saints -7.5, over/under 51.5
The Saints have gone over in all five of their games this season, but are only 2-3 against the spread. The Panthers look to rebound after the Bears snapped their three-game winning streak.
Our pick: Saints 31, Panthers 26
Buffalo Bills (4-2, 2-1 away) at New York Jets (0-6, 0-3 home)
Current line: Bills -13.5, over/under 45.5
The Jets have an average margin of defeat of nearly twenty points per game so far this season. That doesn’t seem likely to change against a Bills team coming off consecutive losses and in need of a confidence-building rebound.
Our pick: Bills 30, Jets 13
Cleveland Browns (4-2, 2-1 away) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1, 1-1 home)
Current line: Browns -3, over/under 50.5
The Browns have looked good in four of their six games this season—but have looked terrible in their two games against division rivals Ravens and Steelers. The Bengals may be just what they need to get their ground game and quarterback Baker Mayfield going again.
Our pick: Browns 31, Bengals 21
Dallas Cowboys (2-4, 0-2 away) at Washington Football Team (1-5, 1-2 home)
Current line: Cowboys -1, over/under 46
While Washington looked moderately better last week against the Giants than they had in previous weeks, the Cowboys struggled in every area of the game in their blowout loss to the Cardinals. The Cowboys remain winless against the spread, but perhaps an equally mistake-ridden Washington is the panacea they need to pick up their third win of the season.
Our pick: Cowboys 19, Washington 17
Detroit Lions (2-3, 2-1 away) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5, 0-3 home)
Current line: Falcons -2.5, over/under 57
The Falcons looked a bit more lively last week in blowing out the Minnesota Vikings for their first win of the season; the Lions similarly played much cleaner football in their 34-16 win over the Jaguars. Both Matt Patricia and interim-coach Raheem Morris are coaching for their jobs.
Our pick: Lions 30, Falcons 28
Green Bay Packers (4-1, 2-1 away) at Houston Texans (1-5, 1-2 home)
Current line: Packers -3.5, over/under 56.5
Both teams are coming off rough losses; the Texans seemed to have a win sewn up against the Titans before losing in overtime and the Packers looked flat in all aspects of the game. Look for Rodgers and the Packers to get things rolling again after last week’s wake-up call.
Our pick: Packers 35, Texans 24
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0, 1-0 away) at Tennessee Titans (5-0, 3-0 home)
Current line: Titans -1.5, over/under 50.5
The Steelers’ defense continues to impress, having just shut down the Browns’ league-leading running game. As the Titans’ offense comes off a record-setting performance (Tannehill’s 350+ passing yards and Henry’s 200+ rushing yards, plus a franchise-high 600+ yards of offense), they face a much steeper challenge this week. Strength against strength, this should be one of the best matchups of the week.
Our pick: Steelers 29, Titans 24
Seattle Seahawks (5-0, 2-0 away) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2, 1-1 home)
Current line: Seahawks -3.5, over/under 55.5
While the Cardinals looked good against the Cowboys, many of their underlying metrics did not; even if the Cardinals scored 38 points, 24 of those were off of turnovers. Given how rarely the Seahawks give the ball away, can the Cardinals score enough to keep up with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense? Or will the Seahawks repeat their troubles in Glendale of previous seasons? (The Seahawks have gone under their last five trips to Arizona.)
Our pick: Cardinals 24, Seahawks 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5, 0-3 away) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-4, 0-2 home)
Current line: Chargers -7.5, over/under 49.5
The Chargers are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games against Jacksonville; eight of the last nine Chargers’ home games have hit the under.
Our pick: Chargers 26, Jaguars 16
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 3-0 away) at Denver Broncos (2-3, 0-2 home)
Current line: Chiefs -9.5, over/under 46.5
The Broncos are coming off consecutive wins and have covered in four of five this season; the Chiefs, after their stumble against the Raiders, impressed against the Bills, especially as their defense stepped up in picking off Josh Allen and holding him to 122 passing yards. The Chiefs are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games at Denver. Can they continue that streak this week?
Our pick: Chiefs 26, Broncos 22
San Francisco 49ers (3-3, 2-0 away) at New England Patriots (2-3, 2-1 home)
Current line: Patriots -1.5, over/under 43.5
Though the 49ers have struggled with injuries, they looked impressive against the Rams; after the Patriots impressed in Newton’s first few starts, they fell flat against the Broncos. Will those trends continue this week? Both teams have been an enigma to oddsmakers this year (the Niners are 3-3 ATS, 3-3 over/under; the Patriots are 2-3 ATS, 2-3 over/under).
Our pick: 49ers 21, Patriots 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2, 1-2 away) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-2, 1-1 home)
Current line: Buccaneers -3, over/under 69.5
Both teams have had their high points (the Buccaneers 38-10 rout of the Packers; the Raiders 40-32 upset of the Chiefs), but neither team has found their consistency yet. The Raiders have gone over in each game so far this season, but the Bucs’ defense may be the best in the league.
Our pick: Buccaneers 31, Raiders 28
Chicago Bears (5-1, 3-0 away) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2, 2-0 home)
Current line: Rams -6, over/under 45
The Bears are now a likely playoff team (76% likelihood, according to Football Outsiders), but bettors remain unconvinced they’re actually any good, and the underlying metrics support that — though their defense looks potentially elite, their offense looks middling even in the best light.
Our pick: Rams 26, Bears 19
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The 2020 NFL season still has a lot to give, and we can’t wait to see what happens in Week 7! Pick your team, place your wager, and don’t miss a minute of hard-hitting NFL action.