In this week’s NFL update, let’s look at key NFL betting trends through the first seven weeks, including summarizing NFL Week 7 action and previewing NFL Week 8 games, as well as our NFL betting picks.
NFL Week 7 summary
NFL Week 7 helped us further separate contenders from pretenders. Let’s examine how each game compared to its closing NFL betting lines and totals to better inform your online sports betting in the coming weeks.
Philadelphia Eagles, 22, New York Giants 21
Closing line Eagles -5; closing total 44.5
Giants +4 ATS; UNDER -1.5
Buffalo Bills 18, New York Jets 10
Closing line Bills -9.5; closing total 46.5
Jets +1.5 ATS; UNDER -18.5
New Orleans Saints 27, Carolina Panthers 24
Closing line Saints -7; closing total 49.5
Panthers +4 ATS; OVER +1.5
Cleveland Browns 37, Cincinnati Bengals 34
Closing line Browns -4; closing total 50
Bengals +1 ATS; OVER +21
Washington Football Team 25, Dallas Cowboys 3
Closing line Cowboys -1; closing total 44.5
Washington +23 ATS; UNDER -16.5
Detroit Lions 23, Atlanta Falcons 22
Closing line Falcons -1; closing total 55
Lions +2 ATS; UNDER -11
Green Bay Packers 35, Houston Texans 20
Closing line Packers -3; closing total 55.5
Packers +12 ATS; UNDER -0.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Tennessee Titans 24
Closing line Titans -1; closing total 51
Steelers +4 ATS; PUSH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45, Las Vegas Raiders 20
Closing line Bucs -4; closing total 51.5
Bucs +21 ATS; OVER +13.5
Los Angeles Chargers 39, Jacksonville Jaguars 29
Closing line Chargers -7.5; closing total 48.5
Chargers +2.5 ATS; OVER +19.5
Kansas City Chiefs 43, Denver Broncos 16
Closing line Chiefs -7; closing total 46
Chiefs +20 ATS; OVER +13
San Francisco 49ers 33, New England Patriots 6
Closing line Patriots -3; closing total 44.5
49ers +30 ATS; UNDER -5.5
Arizona Cardinals 37, Seattle Seahawks 34
Closing line Seahawks -3.5; closing total 55.5
Cardinals +6.5 ATS; OVER +15.5
Los Angeles Rams 24, Chicago Bears 10
Closing line Rams -6.5; closing total 44
Rams +7.5 ATS; UNDER -10
The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings had their bye in NFL Week 7.
Key NFL Week 7 sports betting trends
Key NFL betting trends to keep in mind after NFL Week 7 include the following:
- Favorites went 5-9 against the spread again this week, and are now 47-57-1 on the season, meaning NFL betting lines continue to favor many a sportsbook casino so far this season.
- The Packers, Chargers, and Steelers each moved to 5-1 ATS on the season, tied for the best mark in the league. The Cowboys are the lone team remaining winless against the spread (0-7) and are one win shy of the worst start against the spread in 20 years (the 2003 Rams started 0-8 ATS).
- More games went under their closing total this week, 7-6 (with one push), though overs still lead on the season (54-49-2).
- Road underdogs are covering at a 58% clip (39-28 on the season); road teams, in general, are covering 56% (58-46-1).
Several teams have also been especially notable so far this season for NFL betting:
- The Raiders and Saints each went over yet again; they remain the only teams to go over the total in each of their six games. (The Seahawks have had only one under on the season.)
- The Cardinals went over this past week, but remain the only team with only one over—despite being 5-2 against the spread on the season.
- Teams averaging 30 points per game or more: Seahawks (33.8 ppg), Packers (32.8 ppg), Buccaneers (31.7 ppg), Titans (31.3 ppg), Chiefs (31.1 ppg), Steelers (30.5 ppg), and Saints (30.0 ppg).
- The Ravens (17.3 ppg), Rams (17.7 ppg), Dolphins (18.8 ppg), Colts (19.2 ppg), Steelers (19.7 ppg), and Bears (20.0 ppg) are excelling on defense.
NFL Week 8 preview
Four teams have their bye week in NFL Week 8: Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Washington Football Team. Let’s preview the fourteen games scheduled this week, as well as NFL betting lines and key information for smart online sports betting.
NFL betting picks
These are our picks for NFL Week 8 action, as well as key insights to inform your NFL betting odds:
Atlanta Falcons (1-6, 1-2 away) at Carolina Panthers (3-4, 1-2 home)
Current line: Panthers -2.5, over/under 48.5
The Panthers have dropped their last two after a three-game winning streak; the Falcons have found new heartbreaking ways to lose all season.
Our pick: Panthers 24, Falcons 22
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0, 2-0 away) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1, 2-1 home)
Current line: Ravens -4, over/under 45.5
In a matchup of division rivals and two impressive defenses, the Steelers’ offense has just looked a little more lively so far this season. (The Ravens 177.8 passing yards per game, for instance, ranks 31st in the league, ahead of only the lowly Jets.)
Our pick: Steelers 22, Ravens 19
Los Angeles Rams (5-2, 2-2 away) at Miami Dolphins (3-3, 1-2 home)
Current line: Rams -4, over/under 45.5
Tua Tagliova’s first start will come against the Rams’ fearsome front four. Whether or not you think he’s ready largely determines how you might feel about this line.
Our pick: Rams 26, Dolphins 24
New York Jets (0-7, 0-3 away) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-1, 2-1 home)
Current line: Chiefs -19.5, over/under 48.5
The defending champs host a Jets team that could only muster 4 yards in the second half last week. Even with Jets’ coach Adam Gase coaching for his job, this could be ugly.
Our pick: Chiefs 34, Jets 6
Minnesota Vikings (1-5, 1-2 away) at Green Bay Packers (5-1, 2-0 home)
Current line: Packers -7, over/under 53.5
Even if the Packers won handily in Minnesota in the season opener, this is still a division rivalry in which the unexpected frequently occurs. Expect the Vikings to show a little more fight coming out of the bye.
Our pick: Packers 29, Vikings 26
Indianapolis Colts (4-2, 1-2 away) at Detroit Lions (3-3, 0-2 home)
Current line: Colts -2.5, over/under 50.5
Can the Colts’ lines bully the Lions? Adding Everson Griffin will help the Lions’ pass rush, but he won’t clear COVID-19 protocols until after the Lions’ bye. Expect line play to be the difference here.
Our pick: Colts 26, Lions 23
Las Vegas Raiders (3-3, 2-1 away) at Cleveland Browns (5-2, 3-0 home)
Current line: Browns -3, over/under 52.5
Which Baker Mayfield will show up against the Raiders? Especially with OBJ out for the season, the Browns’ success will depend on Mayfield limiting mistakes and playing efficient football. Against a struggling Raiders’ secondary, expect Mayfield and the Browns to keep rolling.
Our pick: Browns 33, Raiders 27
Tennessee Titans (5-1, 2-0 away) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-5-1, 1-2 home)
Current line: Titans -6, over/under 54.5
The Bengals and rookie Joe Burrow have looked increasingly frisky in recent weeks, but expect the Titans to rebound from their tough loss to the Steelers—especially as the Bengals are giving up 133.7 rushing yards per game.
Our pick: Titans 32, Bengals 27
New England Patriots (2-4, 0-2 away) at Buffalo Bills (5-2, 2-1 home)
Current line: Bills -3.5, over/under 42.5
The Patriots were embarrassed in Foxborough last week, taking the worst home loss of the Belichick era. While the Bills held the Jets to 4 second-half yards, they themselves were limited to eight field goal attempts (of which they made six). A Patriots loss could unofficially eliminate them from playoff contention. Which team will play with more desperation in a rivalry that has—for the past twenty years—largely gone New England’s way?
Our pick: Bills 23, Patriots 16
Los Angeles Chargers (2-4, 1-2 away) at Denver Broncos (2-4, 0-3 home)
Current line: Chargers -3, over/under 44.5
The Broncos are 6-1 in their last seven games against the Chargers; overs have hit in five of the six last Chargers’ visits to Denver. (The Chargers are 5-1 against the spread this season, however, and given how awful Lock looked against the Chiefs’ pressure last week, he could be for a long day against the Chargers.)
Our pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 19
San Francisco 49ers (4-3, 3-0 away) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1, 3-0 home)
Current line: Seahawks -3.5, over/under 52.5
Given how atrocious the Seahawks’ D has been this season (they’re giving up a league-leading 368 passing yards per game), a 49ers team that feasts on yards after catch and yards after contact (they lead the league in both measures) should have a field day. If this turns into a shootout, though, can the battered 49ers keep up?
Our pick: Seahawks 31, 49ers 27
New Orleans Saints (4-2, 1-1 away) at Chicago Bears (5-2, 2-1 home)
Current line: Saints -4, over/under 43.5
After falling flat against the Rams, can the Bears step up against the Saints? Other than the gift-wrapped win against the Buccaneers, Nick Foles and the rest of the Bears’ anemic offense (averaging a mere 19.7 points per game) have so far failed to impress against upper-level competition.
Our pick: Saints 27, Bears 16
Dallas Cowboys (2-5, 0-3 away) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1, 1-2-1 home)
Current line: Eagles -7.5, over/under 43.5
Some team will have to win the NFC East; whichever team plays less dreadfully in this game will likely find themselves in the driver’s seat.
Our pick: Eagles 20, Cowboys 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2, 2-2 away) at New York Giants (1-6, 1-2 home)
Current line: Buccaneers -10.5, over/under 45.5
Last week, Tom Brady accounted for five touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing); Daniel Jones kept himself from scoring on account of tripping over his own legs. The Buccaneers have scored 38 points or more in three of their last four games; the Giants have yet to score more than 16 points against a non-division foe. That pretty well sums up the direction these two teams are headed.
Our pick: Buccaneers 35, Giants 12
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