In this week’s NFL update, let’s look at key NFL betting trends through the first half of the season (as all teams have now played at least eight games), including summarizing NFL Week 9 action and previewing NFL Week 10 games, as well as our NFL betting picks.
NFL Week 9 summary
NFL Week 9 included some key upsets, a few lucky escapes, and even a surprise blowout (or two, depending on how you felt about the Packers-Niners tilt). Let’s examine how each game compared to its closing NFL betting lines and totals to better inform your online sports betting in the coming weeks.
Green Bay Packers 34, San Francisco 49ers 17
Closing line Packers -6; closing total 48.5
Packers +11 ATS; OVER +2.5
Baltimore Ravens 24, Indianapolis Colts 10
Closing line Colts -1; closing total 48
Ravens +15 ATS; UNDER -14
Kansas City Chiefs 33, Carolina Panthers 31
Closing line Chiefs -10; closing total 51.5
Panthers +8 ATS; OVER +12.5
Tennessee Titans 24, Chicago Bears 17
Closing line Titans -6; closing total 46.5
Titans +1 ATS; UNDER -5.5
Atlanta Falcons 34, Denver Broncos 27
Closing line Falcons -4.5; closing total 50
Falcons +2.5 ATS; OVER +11
Minnesota Vikings 34, Detroit Lions 20
Closing line Vikings -3; closing total 51.5
Vikings +11 ATS; OVER +2.5
Houston Texans 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Closing line Texans -6.5; closing total 48.5
Jaguars +4.5 ATS; OVER +3.5
New York Giants 23, Washington Football Team 20
Closing line Washington -3; closing total 43
Giants +6 ATS; PUSH
Buffalo Bills 44, Seattle Seahawks 34
Closing line Seahawks -3; closing total 55
Bills +13 ATS; OVER +23
Las Vegas Raiders 31, Los Angeles Chargers 26
Closing line Raiders -1; closing total 52.5
Raiders +4 ATS; OVER +4.5
Miami Dolphins 34, Arizona Cardinals 31
Closing line Cardinals -6; closing total 49
Dolphins +9 ATS; OVER +16
Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Dallas Cowboys 19
Closing line Steelers -14; closing total 44
Cowboys +9 ATS; UNDER -1
New Orleans Saints 38, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
Closing line Bucs -3; closing total 51
Saints +38 ATS; UNDER -10
New England Patriots 30, New York Jets 27
Closing line Patriots -9.5; closing total 42
Jets +6.5 ATS; OVER +15
The Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles had their bye in NFL Week 9.
Key NFL Week 9 sports betting trends
Key NFL betting trends to keep in mind after NFL Week 9 include the following:
- Favorites went 5-9 against the spread again this week, and are now 56-76-1 on the season, meaning NFL betting lines continue to favor many a sportsbook casino so far this season.
- The Cowboys covered for the first time all season, improving to 1-8 against the spread. The Jets, still winless on the season, improved to 2-7 against the spread. The Saints took their first under of the season, though at 7-1 over/under, they (with the Raiders and Seahawks, also 7-1 over/under) still lead the league in overs.
- More games went over than under, 9-4 (with 1 push), improving overs’ season lead to 72-59-3.
- Road underdogs continue to impress, covering at a 59% clip (51-35 on the season); road teams, in general, are covering 53% of the time (71-62-1).
Several teams have also been especially notable so far this season for NFL betting:
- Three teams have each gone under only once: the Raiders, Saints, and Seahawks are each 7-1 over/under.
- Two teams have each gone over only twice: the Cardinals and Rams are each 2-6 over/under.
- Teams averaging 30 points per game or more: Seahawks (34.3 ppg), Chiefs (31.8 ppg), Packers (31.6 ppg), and Saints (30.5 ppg).
- Teams allowing 20 points per game or fewer: The Ravens (17.8 ppg), Rams (19 ppg), and Colts (20.0 ppg).
NFL Week 10 preview
Four teams have their bye week in NFL Week 10: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and New York Jets. Let’s preview the fourteen games scheduled this week, as well as NFL betting lines and key information for smart online sports betting.
NFL betting picks
These are our picks for NFL Week 10 action, as well as key insights to inform your NFL betting odds:
Indianapolis Colts (5-3, 2-2 away) at Tennessee Titans (6-2, 4-1 home)
Current line: Titans -2, over/under 48.5
Though neither team closed well in Week 10, both squads should see this as a key division game: a Titans win would give them a 2-game lead in the NFC South standings, whereas the Colts could pull even with an upset. Expect it to come down to whichever team makes fewer mistakes.
Our pick: Titans 27, Colts 21
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1, 1-2 away) at New York Giants (2-7, 1-3 home)
Current line: Eagles -3, over/under 44.5
Carson Wentz leads the league with 16 turnovers; Daniel Jones is second with 13. Yet one of these teams will be in the drivers’ seat in the awful NFC East after this game.
Our pick: Eagles 24, Giants 20
Houston Texans (2-6, 1-3 away) at Cleveland Browns (5-3, 3-1 home)
Current line: Browns -3, over/under 53.5
If the Browns want to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2002, they’ll need to take advantage of their next three weeks—Texans, Eagles, Jaguars—before pivotal games against the Titans and Ravens. Fortunately, Baker Mayfield has played much better against teams below .500 (11 touchdowns, 2 picks) than teams above .500 (4 touchdowns, 5 picks). Expect Good Mayfield against the Texans’ weak secondary.
Our pick: Browns 34, Texans 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3, 3-2 away) at Carolina Panthers (3-6, 1-3 home)
Current line: Bucs -6, over/under 50.5
After a week in which Tom Brady looked awful (three picks, no scores), it might be worth noting that for his career he is 44-21 against the spread following a loss. Similarly, it might be worth noting that while the Panthers are clearly better with Christian McCaffrey on the field (8 TDs in 9 red zone possessions with him this season against 10 TDs in 21 red zone possessions without), going back to last season they’ve lost 11 straight games with McCaffrey.
Our pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7, 0-4 away) at Green Bay Packers (6-2, 2-1 home)
Current line: Packers -14, over/under 51.5
Rookie quarterback Jake Luton looked surprisingly good against the Texans, but the Packers should present a more challenging learning curve.
Our pick: Packers 33, Jaguars 19
Washington Football Team (2-6, 0-3 away) at Detroit Lions (3-5, 0-3 home)
Note: Few online sportsbook casino offerings currently offer a line for Washington at Detroit.
Quarterback Alex Smith will start for the first time in nearly two full years since his catastrophic leg injury. (He’ll get the start despite throwing three interceptions last week—which makes sense only when you consider the alternative is Dwayne Haskins.) Meanwhile, Matt Patricia continues to coach for his job, especially given how flat the Lions looked against the Vikings in every aspect of the game.
Our pick: Washington 27, Lions 24
Buffalo Bills (7-2, 3-1 away) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3, 2-2 home)
Current line: Cardinals -1.5, over/under 56.5
If this turns into a shootout, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray are both ready. By most metrics (including QBR), both are decidedly top-ten quarterbacks this season. Both young signal-callers are coming off fantastic Week 9 performances, with 3 passing scores and a rushing touchdown each last week.
Our pick: Cardinals 31, Bills 28
Los Angeles Chargers (2-6, 1-3 away) at Miami Dolphins (5-3, 2-2 home)
Current line: Dolphins -2.5, over/under 47.5
Though the Chargers continue to play games close (their 39-29 victory over the Jaguars in Week 7 is their only game yet decided by more than one score), they’ve struggled to finish. In the first matchup between consecutive 2020 draft picks (the Dolphins chose Tua Tagovailoa fifth before Justin Herbert went sixth to the Chargers), expect another close one—and the Dolphins’ fifth consecutive win.
Our pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 23
Denver Broncos (3-5, 2-2 away) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3, 1-2 home)
Current line: Raiders -5, over/under 51.5
Despite the hardest first-half schedule, the Raiders are 5-3 and currently one of four teams fighting for two playoff berths (along with the Dolphins, Browns, and Colts). By strength of victory, however, the Raiders are far and away the best of the bunch (.571, as opposed to .366, .341, and .329, respectively).
Still, it may be worth noting that the Raiders have never had a winning record when playing division rivals in three consecutive games (at the Chargers last week, hosting the Broncos this week, hosting the Chargers next week) since division realignment in 2002.
Our pick: Raiders 27, Broncos 23
Seattle Seahawks (6-2, 2-2 away) at Los Angeles Rams (5-3, 3-0 home)
Current line: Rams -2, over/under 55.5
Sean McVay is 2-1 after a bye week, and Carroll’s Seahawks have historically played slightly worse (by point metrics) after a loss than otherwise expected. With a win, the Rams would find themselves right back in the NFC West; if they can take advantage of the Seahawks’ historically dreadful defense, they should be in good shape.
Our pick: Rams 31, Seahawks 27
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1, 0-3-1 away) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0, 4-0 home)
Current line: Steelers -7.5, over/under 47.5
The Steelers set a franchise record with their eighth consecutive win to start the season, though it required overcoming a 13-point deficit and their first loss against the spread. Watch the line against the surprisingly frisky Bengals, who may not be winning many games, but are a solid 6-2 against the spread (the Steelers are also 6-2 ATS).
Our pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 21
San Francisco 49ers (4-5, 3-1 away) at New Orleans Saints (6-2, 3-1 home)
Current line: Saints -9.5, over/under 49.5
The Saints were firing on all cylinders in their Sunday night rout of the Buccaneers; the 49ers were barely able to field a full team Thursday night against the Packers, with more than 80 million in salaries tied up on injured reserve currently. This should be an easy win for the Saints, but another loss likely ends the 49ers’ playoff aspirations.
Our pick: Saints 21, 49ers 17
Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 4-0 away) at New England Patriots (3-5, 2-2 home)
Current line: Ravens 7, over/under 43.5
The Ravens have not looked unstoppable in the ways they did last year, but the Patriots look even less like last year’s squad. A loss here would all but guarantee New England misses the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 season.
Our pick: Ravens 30, Patriots 16
Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 2-2 away) at Chicago Bears (5-4, 2-2 home)
Current line: Vikings -2.5, over/under 44.5
Two weeks ago, the Vikings’ likelihood of a playoff berth was low single digits; the Bears, meanwhile, were looking at a 75% chance of postseason play. Since then, though, Dalvin Cook has gone on a rampage (taking the Vikings with him) and the Bears’ offense has completely fallen apart. Unless the Bears address their many problems (penalties, terrible third-down efficiency, turnovers, etc), their skid won’t stop here.
Our pick: Vikings 28, Bears 17
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