2 Best NFL Player Props for TNF: Browns vs Steelers

Pittsburgh will look to solidify its AFC North position with a rare TNF win in Browns vs Steelers.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

Browns vs Steelers Predictions: TNF Player Props

Jaylen Warren Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The clear path to exploiting Cleveland’s defense comes on the ground. Through three games, Cleveland ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.

It also marks a sell-high opportunity on the unit. Cleveland posted its best rush defense DVOA rating against Carolina (-14.7%). However, Chuba Hubbard still managed 82 rushing yards.

Warren excelled in Rico Dowdle’s absence on Sunday. He rushed for 127 yards on only 17 attempts. It came after he finished under 100 total yards in his first two games.

Still, the Steelers ran the ball well as a team. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 16th in rush offense DVOA and posted its best percentage as a team vs. Cincinnati.

It coincided with changes along the offensive line. Mike McCarthy swapped out the entire right side of the line against the Bengals.

A one-game sample size still offers some unknowns about the offense. Still, the offense goes from facing a Bengals defense ranked 15th in rush defense to an inferior Cleveland unit.

Given those factors, I predict Warren clears this number for the second straight game.

Deshaun Watson Under 18.5 Completions (-115)

Watson finished under this benchmark in two of three games this season. His lone success came in Week 2 against Tampa Bay, which ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA.

The Steelers rank sixth in the same category and offer Watson the second-toughest test this year. Against the second-ranked Jaguars pass defense, he completed only 16 passes.

More Steelers optimism comes in Joey Porter Jr’s presumed return. The contract holdout practiced fully on Monday and Tuesday and appears primed for a return.

The return should bolster Pittsburgh’s secondary after a weak showing against Cincinnati. Joe Burrow completed 28-of-37 for 282 yards and three touchdowns.

I don’t buy Watson can replicate the output. Plus, he struggled mightily against zone coverage this season, which the Steelers run at the league’s second-highest rate.

Watson ranks 25th of 32nd in expected points added per dropback against zone this year. His 3.2% DVOA rating (15th) suggests a boom-or-bust tendency against the scheme.

Add in Cleveland’s viability as a home underdog, and I suspect the Browns could lean on the run. It leads me to predict Watson finishes under this benchmark.