Barring a quarterback injury, NFL offenses tend to hold steady in their annual metrics.
From 2024 to 2025, five top-10 offenses kept their spots in the top-10, albeit in a different order. Only two – Tampa Bay and Washington – dropped to 14th or worse in DVOA.
What is more variant are the DVOA percentages associated with each team. For example, the Lions fell from +19.9% (third in 2024) to +11.8% (seventh in 2025).
Below, I’ve outlined two NFL offenses primed for negative regression against their 2025 metrics.
2 NFL Offenses Likely to Regress From 2025 Metrics
Los Angeles Rams (+30.7%, 1st in 2025 DVOA)
When you see a percentage this high, it usually means everything went very right for the offense.
Barring injuries, the Rams should still finish as a top-five offense in the league. Sean McVay remains an elite playcaller, and Matthew Stafford plays behind one of the most reliable lines.
Still, the metrics towards the end of last year need to be taken with a dose of skepticism.
From Week 9 onward, the Rams scored 28 or more points in all but two games. However, they either faced bad defenses or seriously injured units.
McVay’s offense played four games against the NFC South. Save for the Falcons, LA dominated three pretty bad defenses.
Games against Detroit, San Francisco and Arizona (twice) provided opportunities against hurt teams.
While a Thursday night performance in Seattle offers hope, I wonder if the short week helped LA. Those factors lead me to predict slight regression by LA in 2026.
Seattle Seahawks (+8.5%, 10th in DVOA)
Klint Kubiak departed for Las Vegas. Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City. They leave behind an offense that relied on explosives to generate most of its offense.
On offense, the Seahawks generated 59 red zone opportunities. Nine teams earned more red zone trips, including teams like Indianapolis, Dallas and Arizona.
Seattle ranked third in points per game, but scored 50 of 483 off defense or special teams touchdowns. This is why points per game can look misleading sometimes.
Additionally, Seattle finished the season as a largely one-dimensional unit. Here are their splits in EPA per play and success rate both through the air and on the ground (excluding turnovers):
- Dropback: 2nd, 2nd
- Rushing: 23rd, 23rd
Even from Week 10 onward, the rushing attack only reached 11th and 13th in rushing EPA per play and rushing success rate.
Most of that success also came against bad teams playing from favorable game states.
If Walker’s departure affects the run game as we assume, it could lead to some statistical regression by Seattle’s offense.
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