2 Best NFL Player Props for AFC Championship: Broncos vs Patriots

Suddenly, Jarrett Stidham leads Denver into the 2025 AFC Championship: Broncos vs Patriots. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Broncos vs Patriots Prediction: AFC Championship Player Props

R.J. Harvey Under 40.5 Rushing Yards (-135)

Maybe I’m overreacting to one game, but Harvey faces a brutal matchup in the AFC Championship. 

Last week, Harvey faced an anemic Bills rush defense. He rushed for 20 yards on only six attempts, his second straight game under this benchmark. 

Now he takes on a Patriots rush defense owning significantly better defensive metrics. During the regular season, New England outpaced Buffalo by 13 spots in rush defense DVOA. 

That sample includes a stretch where New England operated without Milton Williams. Since returning Williams, the rush defense has returned to normal levels. 

Williams played at least 33 defensive snaps in New England’s first 10 games. Over that sample, the Patriots ranked fourth in rush EPA per play and eighth in rush success rate. 

De’Von Achane managed only 30 yards in that game while James Cook rushed for 49. 

He then played eight snaps in Week 11 and didn’t return until Week 18. From Week 11-17, New England dropped to 28th and 30th in the respective metrics. 

Harvey cleared this line only seven times. Even if you look at his high-volume games (11+ attempts), he overtook 40.5 four times in seven games. 

Plus, Harvey has taken on a larger receiving role lately. Over his last six games, the rookie averaged 4.7 targets per game, up from three per game in his first 12. 

If Harvey continues his role in the passing game, it likely means fewer rushing opportunities. Pair that with New England’s strength against the run, and I predict he stays under this line. 

Drake Maye Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)

The price surprises me here as Maye has thrown at least one pick in 10 games this year. 

Even more concerning for Maye is that as his volume increases, so does his tendency to turn the ball over. 

The North Carolina product attempted 23 or fewer passes in six games this year. When that happened, he threw only one interception against one turnover-worthy play. 

In all other games, he threw nine interceptions against 20 turnover-worthy plays. Now, he faces a defense that forced two interceptions from Josh Allen. 

My belief is that New England won’t succeed in running the ball. Only the Bills (second in rush DVOA) and Colts (fifth) saw success by their running backs. New England ranks 21st. 

One last factor is worth considering from Maye. As his pressure count rises, so does his turnover-worthy play rate. 

Maye saw at least 13 pressures in 11 games this year. Across those 11 games, he produced a 3.81% turnover-worthy play rate. Otherwise: 1.16%. 

I will be stunned if Maye doesn’t see pressure in this game. For the season, Denver leads the NFL with a 9.3% sack percentage. 

Given those factors, I predict Maye throws an interception for the third straight game.