2 Best NFL Player Props for Patriots vs Texans

New England’s powerful offense meets Houston’s league-best defense in Patriots vs Texans. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Patriots vs Texans Prediction: Divisional Player Props

Woody Marks Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Marks delivered a 112-yard performance against the Steelers on MNF. Week over week, his prop only rose by two yards. 

That adjustment should tell you everything about New England’s rush defense. Although the team suffered a brief falloff against the run, it coincided with a key injury. 

From Week 12 through Week 17, New England’s defense operated without Milton Williams. In those games, the Patriots fell to 25th in rush EPA per play and 27th in rushing success rate. 

Before that stretch, New England possessed one of the best rush defenses in the league. From Weeks 1-11, New England ranked fourth and seventh in those corresponding categories. 

That sample includes a trip to Buffalo to face a second-ranked Bills rushing attack by DVOA. In that game, James Cook managed only 49 yards. 

Last week, the defense held Kimani Vidal to 31 yards on 11 attempts. Over the entire season, only one team ranks worse than Los Angeles in run-block win rate: Houston. 

In my estimation, that renders Sunday’s game a strong sell-high spot on Marks. 

Drake Maye Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-115)

If we’ve learned anything about the Texans defense, it’s that the elite pass rush opens running lanes for quarterbacks. 

Houston kept an immobile Aaron Rodgers from scrambling on MNF. However, previous games saw opponents reel off a big gain. 

Justin Herbert (28) cleared this line in Week 17 against Houston. Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix, Cam Ward and Baker Mayfield all saw successes against Houston as well. 

Now the Texans face Maye, who remains vulnerable because of his average time to throw. Given his deep-ball rate, it gives the pass rush more time to pressure the MVP candidate. 

That tendency has led to some decent-sized scrambles from the UNC product. Over the entire season, he cleared this benchmark eight times. 

Shrink the sample down to his previous five games, and bettors will find Maye cleared this benchmark four times. 

His best output came last week against the Chargers. In that game, Maye rushed for 66 yards with a 37-yard longest attempt.