2 NFL Player Props for MNF: Chiefs vs Commanders

Kansas City goes for a fifth win in six as heavy home favorites in Chiefs vs Commanders. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the AFC vs. NFC contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Chiefs vs Commanders Prediction: Player Props

Isiah Pacheco Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

As Kansas City’s results have turned, so has Pacheco’s ability to rack up yards. 

Before Week 6, Pacheco failed to clear 50 rushing yards in any game. Then he notched consecutive 50+ yard outputs against the Lions and Raiders, including 57 last week. 

Now he gets a favorable matchup against Washington in a likely positive script. 

Washington has allowed both Javonte Williams and D’Andre Swift to clear 100 yards in the previous two games. 

The Commanders currently sit 12th in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. However, opponents cumulatively average a -7.2% rush offense DVOA rating. 

For Washington, the Chiefs mark their second straight game against a top-nine unit. 

Kansas City’s rush offense DVOA rating sits at +1.8% having played opponents carrying a -7.2% rush defense DVOA rating. 

That tells me Kansas City’s rating is more trustworthy than Washington (negative = good on defense, bad on offense). 

Pair that with the expected script, and I predict Pacheco clears this benchmark for the second straight game. 

Marcus Mariota Under 18.5 Completions (-110)

A true read on Kansas City’s defense is difficult to quantify. However, they’ve generally succeeded against this number vs average or below-average quarterbacks. 

Jared Goff cleared this number last week, amassing 23 completions. That’s unsurprising given Detroit ranks third in pass offense DVOA. 

Justin Herbert also overtook this benchmark against the Chiefs in Week 1. Although the Chargers rank 19th in pass DVOA, I’d argue the unit is better from the eye test. 

Every other signal caller has – for all intents and purposes – stayed under this number against Kansas City. The lone exception is Lamar Jackson and Cooper Rush combining for a win. 

But Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence all stayed under this line. Personally, I drop Mariota into this bucket. 

Mariota has started two games this year and hasn’t cleared this line either time. As an underdog against Atlanta, he completed only 16 passes. 

But it could prove tougher on MNF. Both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel are questionable, leaving Mariota with minimal quality at receiver. 

In Atlanta, Mariota at least played with Samuel. It still wasn’t enough to clear this line. 

Given those factors, I predict the NFL journeyman stays under this line for a third straight game. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Chiefs vs Commanders