2 NFL Player Props for MNF: Falcons vs Bills

The first game of the MNF doubleheader features Falcons vs Bills in Atlanta. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Falcons vs Bills Prediction: Player Props

Khalil Shakir Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

The Falcons pass defense can best be described as wholly fraudulent. 

Yes, they lead the league in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. But it has come against a very easy set of opponents. 

Atlanta has played only one game against a top-10 pass offense DVOA side with its starting quarterback. That came all the way back in Week 1 against the Buccaneers. 

Regarding Shakir, he’s uniquely qualified to exploit Atlanta’s defense. 

The Falcons have run zone coverage 76% of the time through four games. In Buffalo’s five games, Shakir owns a 24% target share against zone, per PFF. 

Shakir has also produced some explosive plays against the scheme. On 16 receptions against zone, he amassed 181 yards. 

Through five games, Shakir recorded at least 45 receiving yards four times. He’s cleared this number twice, including 69 yards against a zone-heavy Saints defense. 

Accordingly, I predict a similar outcome against an overrated pass defense. 

Drake London Over 5.5 Receptions (-160)

If a Falcons pass catcher not named London has a successful outing, it will come as a surprise. 

Buffalo plays zone coverage at a 72% rate, good for around league average. The issue? London ranks second amongst all NFL wide receivers in PFF grade against zone. 

London also dominates Atlanta’s target share against zone. Through four games, he posted a 30% target share against the scheme with 22 receptions and 262 receiving yards. 

The next closest Falcons pass catcher against zone? Kyle Pitts with 11 receptions and 91 yards on a 14.3% target share. 

This number has also risen heavily from market open. Likely due to Darnell Mooney’s absences, London’s receptions prop price rose from -110 to -160. 

In terms of his success against this benchmark, London cleared this number twice. Those results came in Week 1 against Tampa Bay and Week 4 against Washington. 

He also came close with five receptions against the Panthers. 

Pair that with a likely negative game script against Buffalo, and I predict London clears this number for a third time this year. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Falcons vs Bills