2 NFL Player Props for MNF: Lions vs Buccaneers

To kick off the MNF doubleheader in Week 7, it’s Lions vs Buccaneers in Detroit. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Lions vs Buccaneers Prediction: Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

As a primarily slot receiver, St. Brown receives an extremely favorable matchup on Monday. 

The Bucs run a zone-heavy coverage scheme at a 70% clip this season. To date, St. Brown has produced great metrics against the scheme. 

Only nine NFL receivers earned more yards vs. zone coverage than St. Brown. Amongst Lions wide receivers, St. Brown picked up a 26% target share vs. zone, according to PFF. 

Tampa Bay excels in man coverage, but has struggled in zone. Again, per PFF, Todd Bowles’ defense has surrendered the league’s third-worst yards per coverage snap in zone. 

That, in my estimation, creates a decent buy-low spot on St. Brown. 

Last week, he caught nine balls against Kansas City for only 45 yards. In terms of yards allowed, Kansas City bests Tampa Bay while in zone. 

Last season, St. Brown dominated the Bucs pass defense. He caught 11 balls for 119 yards, his third-highest yardage output. 

Given those outputs, I predict St. Brown clears this figure for the fourth time this season. 

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-140)

Generally speaking, this game features a major sell-high spot on Tampa Bay’s run defense. 

The Bucs rank sixth in rush defense DVOA. However, Detroit offers the stiffest test to date for a unit that has rarely played good competition. 

Cumulatively, Tampa Bay’s six opponents average a rush offense DVOA rating of -13.2%. In Week 7, they get a Lions team sitting on a +2.6% rating. 

Enter Gibbs, who rushed for 84 yards against Tampa Bay last year. He also cleared this benchmark in four of six this season. 

He has accomplished that feat while facing defenses averaging a rush defense DVOA rating of -12%. 

Thus, Gibbs’ outputs should be more trusted than Tampa Bay’s rush defense metrics. 

Pair that with a likely positive game script from Detroit, and I expect a heavy rushing effort on Monday. Accordingly, I predict Gibbs clears this number. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Lions vs Buccaneers