- I predict Patrick Mahomes clears his passing yards prop (268.5 yards).
- My prediction for Tyquan Thornton’s longest reception prop against Detroit.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (-155) is predicted to score a touchdown in Chiefs vs Lions.
A fifth straight win is within reach for Detroit in Chiefs vs Lions on Sunday Night Football.
In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
Chiefs vs Lions Prediction: Player Props
Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Detroit hasn’t allowed a passer to clear this number all season. Mahomes has cleared this number in two straight games.
Which streak continues?
I predict it’s Mahomes. The Lions secondary will head to Arrowhead without D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold.
It leaves the defensive vulnerable to a passing unit that’s the best they’ve faced since Week 1. While Detroit ranks fifth in pass defense DVOA, but the tests have lacked.
Detroit’s four opponents average a pass offense DVOA rating of +12.7%. The Chiefs’ pass offense DVOA rating comes in at +35.7%.
Mahomes just cleared this number against Jacksonville, which ranks a spot ahead of Detroit in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Pair that with the Lions’ injury absentees, and I predict Mahomes clears this number for a third straight game.
Tyquan Thornton Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards (-115)
This number strikes me as low for a player that has produced success within this prop market.
Thornton has cleared 15.5 yards as his longest reception four times in five games. In those four successes, his longest reception reached at least 33 yards in all four.
Now he receives a favorable matchup against a man-heavy scheme. This season, Thornton has excelled against that coverage look.
His 22.4% target share against man ranks third amongst Chiefs wide receivers, per PFF. Although he owns only seven receptions against the coverage, he leads the team with 112 yards against man.
That tells me Thornton offers boom-or-bust potential against a banged up Lions secondary.
While some success can be attributed to Xavier Worthy’s absence, Thornton still excelled last week. Against a decent Jaguars secondary, Thornton’s longest reception equaled 34 yards.
Given those factors, I predict Thornton clears this number for a second straight contest.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Chiefs vs Lions
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