2 NFL Player Props for Week 1: Giants vs Cowboys

Week 1’s Sunday slate closes out with an NFC East clash: Giants vs Cowboys.

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Giants vs Cowboys Prediction: SNF Player Props

Javonte Williams Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)

It’s already a lofty number to begin with for Williams, who cleared this number only five times in 16 games last year.

More concerning is how Dallas efficiently runs the ball without guard Tyler Smith. Last year, Smith led the Cowboys in PFF run-blocking grades.

Even at full health, Dallas struggled to block the Giants’ front in their meaningful contest last year. At 42.2, the Cowboys posted their worst run-blocking grade of the season in Week 2.

New York has since lost Dexter Lawrence. Historically, the Giants’ rush defense has struggled to hold up without the defensive tackle.

But I’m also here to say that the Giants rush defense might be so bad, Williams can run well on fewer attempts.

Last season, the Giants ranked 32nd in rush defense DVOA and 26th in adjusted line yards. Opponents also reached the second level or open field at the highest frequency.

It showed in Week 2 as Williams rushed for 97 yards on 18 attempts. The game also went to overtime, which earned Williams four extra attempts.

Add in the Cowboys’ advantage over New York’s secondary, and I predict Williams stays under a high number.

CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (+100)

Against an outstanding pass rush, Dallas (presumably) will look for quick throws to exploit New York’s secondary.

A coordinator change could affect New York’s coverage trends. However, the team personnel remains the same on a team that played a heavy dose of man coverage last year.

Few receivers proved better against the scheme than Lamb. Last season, Lamb ranked second in yards per route run and third in DVOA against man coverage.

It showed in Week 2 against the Giants. Lamb caught nine receptions on 11 targets for 112 yards. He amassed more targets in only two games last year and more receptions in zero.

Against man coverage, Lamb ranked T-5th in the NFL in targets and T-7th in receptions. Plus, New York ranked amongst the worst in the NFL at eight receptions per game to WR1s.

Both Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown reached nine receptions against the Giants. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both reached six receptions against the New York secondary.

Having failed to address the secondary this summer, New York profiles as a similarly bad pass defense. Accordingly, I predict Lamb clears a lofty benchmark on SNF.