2 Best NFL Player Props for SNF: Steelers vs Ravens

Week 18 closes with an AFC North decider: Steelers vs Ravens at Acrisure Stadium. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the division matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Steelers vs Ravens Prediction: SNF Player Props

Pat Freiermuth Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Freiermuth has cleared this benchmark only three times all year. Two of those came against bottom-five defenses against tight ends. 

Take out his 111-yard outing at Cincinnati – the league’s worst defense against tight ends – and his yardage output drops to 21.6 yards per game. 

While he could see an increased target share with both Darnell Washington and D.K. Metcalf absent, the matchup leaves a lot to be desired. 

Only five teams allow fewer receiving yards to opposing tight ends than Baltimore (46.2). When these teams last met, Freiermuth caught only two balls for nine yards. 

Additionally, the Penn State product has generally enjoyed better metrics against zone coverage. This season, he notched 265 against zone compared to 98 against man. 

Baltimore runs man coverage at the league’s fourth-highest rate. While the same is true of Cleveland – Freiermuth recorded 63 yards last week – the team allows more yards to tight ends. 

With Calvin Austin likely returning, I expect Pittsburgh to try to exploit Baltimore’s corners. Accordingly, I’ll sell high off Freiermuth’s performance in Cleveland. 

Zay Flowers Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Lamar Jackson appears set to return on Sunday. He and Flowers should find ways to exploit a man-heavy Steelers coverage unit. 

Pittsburgh runs the second-highest percentage of man coverage in the NFL. The defense also allows the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing WR1s (69.0). 

Flowers leads all Ravens with 41 targets against man. The next closest is Mark Andrews with 24. 

He also dominated the Steelers when these teams met in Baltimore. The third-year receiver amassed 124 yards on eight receptions. 

In his last four outings against top-10 man coverage units, he cleared 75 yards three times. 

Flowers has also cleared this benchmark in all but five games this season, with two failures coming without Jackson. 

His lone failure against a top-10 man coverage unit defense came in a 23-10 win over the Jets. Barring a complete shock, the score on SNF should prove much closer. 

Given those factors, I predict he clears this prop for the second straight game against Pittsburgh.