2 NFL Player Props for TNF: Bengals vs Steelers

Pittsburgh goes for a second straight division win on TNF in Bengals vs. Steelers. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the AFC North matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Bengals vs Steelers Prediction: Player Props

Kenneth Gainwell Over 2.5 Receptions (-150)

Quietly, the Steelers have started to involve Gainwell more in the passing game. 

The former Eagles back has amassed 12 targets over his last two games. In his first three with Pittsburgh, he accumulated 10. 

Gainwell caught all 12 of his targets over the last two weeks. Those successes led to his third and fourth clearances against this prop over his last five games. 

His best performance of the season came against a zone-heavy Vikings scheme in Dublin. Gainwell caught six passes for 35 yards in that game. 

Now he faces a Bengals defense that surrenders a ton of opportunities to opposing running backs. 

Cincinnati ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA against running backs, per ftnfantasy.com. The defense has allowed 5.3 receptions and 47.1 yards to the position. 

Given those metrics, I predict Gainwell clears this benchmark for a third straight game. 

Ja’Marr Chase Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

If the Steelers continue to play zone coverage at the current rate, it presents a massive opportunity for Chase. 

Pittsburgh actually plays man coverage at a top-10 rate, per PFF. However, they still play zone coverage over 67% of the time. 

Plus, Darius Slay is potentially absent on Thursday. That could alter Pittsburgh’s defensive tendencies against a pass-heavy unit.

This season, Chase has shredded zone coverage. His 26 receptions on 33 targets for 305 yards all lead the team. For reference, no other player owns more than 18 targets against zone. 

Plus, Pittsburgh has struggled to defend top wide receivers this season. Justin Jefferson caught 10 balls for 126 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught eight balls for 103 yards. 

Chase has cleared this number in two straight and three of the previous five. 

Plus, Pittsburgh proved a fraudulent pass defense before last week. 

Excluding a defensive matchup against Dillon Gabriel, the Steelers ranked 28th in dropback EPA per play when excluding turnovers. 

That, in my estimation, creates a strong sell-high spot against Pittsburgh’s defense via Chase. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Bengals vs Steelers