2 NFL Player Props for TNF: Chargers vs Vikings

Los Angeles tries to avoid a fourth straight ATS loss on TNF in Chargers vs Vikings. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the AFC vs. NFC contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Chargers vs Vikings Prediction: Player Props

Justin Jefferson Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Jefferson narrowly stayed under this number against Philadelphia, managing 79 yards. 

That ended a two-game streak for Jefferson finishing over this benchmark. Now, he gets a zone-heavy Chargers defense that struggles against top wide receivers. 

Los Angeles plays zone coverage at the league’s third-highest rate (79.6%), per PFF. This season, Jefferson ranks amongst the best receivers exploiting that scheme. 

Only six wide receivers managed more yards against zone coverage than Jefferson. Amongst Vikings receivers, he ranks second to Jordan Addison in target share vs. zone (21.5%). 

The kicker, though, is that Los Angeles has struggled to defend top wide receivers. 

This season, opposing WR1s are averaging 88.5 yards against the Chargers defense. Only three teams have allowed more to the position. 

Over the last three games, the Chargers allowed 96 to Deebo Samuel, 95 to Jaylen Waddle and 98 to Alec Pierce. 

Accordingly, I predict Jefferson clears this benchmark for the third time in four games. 

Keenan Allen Over 4.5 Receptions (-155)

Buying Allen off his best performance of the year feels slightly worrisome. 

Last week, he exploded for 11 catches and 119 yards against the Colts. On TNF, he receives a favorable matchup against a zone-heavy Vikings pass defense. 

Minnesota plays zone coverage at a 76% rate, good for the ninth-highest percentage in the league. This season, Allen leads all Chargers pass catchers with a 31% target share vs. zone. 

Across the entire league, only 16 players scored more targets than Allen against zone coverage. 

Without Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, the Chargers are throwing at a high rate. 

Game state certainly plays a role, but Justin Herbert averaged 40.7 attempts and 29.3 completions over his last three games. 

Plus, it’s a sell-high opportunity on the Minnesota defense. The Vikings rank 12th in defensive DVOA, but have played the league’s sixth-easiest set of offenses. 

Allen has reached at least five receptions in all but one game this season. Accordingly, I like the price on him to clear 4.5 receptions for the second straight game. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Chargers vs Vikings