2 NFL Player Props for TNF: Dolphins vs Ravens

To open the Week 9 slate, it’s Dolphins vs Ravens on Thursday Night Football. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Dolphins vs Ravens Prediction: Player Props

Mark Andrews Over 2.5 Receptions (-165)

Lamar Jackson is officially back, and Andrews receives a favorable matchup against a bad Miami pass defense. 

A lot of focus centers on Miami’s poor rush defense. However, it’s simultaneously a team that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

This season, Anthony Weaver’s defense has struggled against tight ends. Entering Week 9, Miami ranks amongst the 10 worst defenses in passes allowed against tight ends (7.9). 

Here’s a look at some opposing outputs by tight ends against Miami:

• Tyler Warren: 7 receptions, 76 yards
• Austin Hooper: 3 receptions, 38 yards
• Dalton Kincaid: 5 receptions, 66 yards
• Mason Taylor: 5 receptions, 65 yards
• Tommy Tremble: 1 reception, 7 yards
• Oronde Gadsden: 7 receptions, 68 yards
• Harold Fannin: 4 receptions, 36 yards
• Kyle Pitts: 9 receptions, 59 yards

Andrews has cleared this number in four of seven games this season. He notched at least four in three games, two of which came with Jackson at quarterback. 

Plus, Andrews has enjoyed a high target share against man coverage. This year, the Dolphins deploy that scheme at the league’s 11th-highest rate (27%). 

Only Zay Flowers has accumulated more targets against man coverage than Andrews (12). 

Incredibly, Baltimore ranks 12th in pass offense DVOA, despite operating without Jackson for a few games. 

Given the matchup advantage, I predict Andrews clears this number for the fifth game this season. 

De’Von Achane Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Very quietly, Baltimore has performed well against opposing running backs. That comes despite losing Nnamdi Madubuike for the season. 

Last week, D’Andre Swift managed only 45 rushing yards against Baltimore. The previous week, Kyren Williams rushed for only 50 yards against the Ravens. 

Even in a blowout loss to Houston, Baltimore held Nick Chubb to only 61 rushing yards. 

If you’re expecting a positive game script for Baltimore, it limits Achane’s rushing opportunities. That creates a potential sell-high spot after a 67-yard performance against Atlanta. 

For the entire season, Achane cleared this number five times in eight games. The three times he fell short of this benchmark, Miami lost the game outright. 

Plus, I don’t believe Baltimore’s rush defense is as bad as its 22nd-place DVOA rating suggests. To date, Baltimore has played five games against teams 14th or better in rush offense DVOA. 

Included in that sample: four games against teams seventh or better. 

Miami, this season, produced boom-or-bust rushing opponents. Through eight games, the Dolphins rank 14th in rush EPA per play, against 27th in rushing success rate. 

Accordingly, I predict Achane stays under this threshold in a (likely) outright loss. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Dolphins vs Ravens