- I predict Saquon Barkley clears his longest rushing prop (18.5 yards).
- My prediction for DeVonta Smith’s over/under receptions prop.
- Saquon Barkley (-160) and Jalen Hurts (-135) are predicted to score a touchdown.
Saquon Barkley makes his second return to MetLife for Giants vs Eagles on Thursday Night Football.
In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the NFC East matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
Giants vs Eagles Prediction: Player Props
Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 18.5 Yards (-125)
Would you believe me if I told you Barkley has yet to clear this number in a game this season?
The 2024 Offensive Player of the Year has come close a few times, but has yet to post an attempt longer than 17 yards.
But he gets a Giants defense in Week 5 that has posted some poor metrics against opposing running backs.
Three of five opposing RB1’s have cleared this number against New York. The three that did all recorded a longest rush of at least 30 yards.
Only the Bears recorded a worse open field rush percentage than the Giants.
Plus, Barkley enjoyed success against the Giants last season. In his lone game against his former team, Barkley rushed for 176 yards with a longest rush of 55 yards.
That creates a decent buy-low spot on Thursday as Barkley has yet to face a bottom-five rush defense in open field rush percentage.
DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)
New York deploys a heavy dose of man coverage. Entering Week 6, only two teams play a higher percentage of man coverage than the Giants.
When Philadelphia faces that scheme, Smith and A.J. Brown tend to dominate the target share.
This season, the pair combined for a 63% target share against man. Brown comes in at 33.3% while Smith sits at 29.7%.
Right now, Jalen Hurts’ completion prop is set at 18.5, juiced to the under. If Smith maintains that target share, he’s projected for 5.4 receptions.
Last week, Smith faced a Broncos team that also plays man coverage at a top-10 rate. He caught eight passes on 10 targets for 114 yards.
That marked the second time in three games he cleared 4.5 receptions.
Additionally, the Giants have struggled to contain opposing WR2’s this season. Per ftnfantasy.com, New York has allowed 6.2 receptions and 46.1 yards on average to the position.
Based on those factors, I predict Smith clears this line for the second straight game against a bad defense.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Giants vs Eagles
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
