- I predict Troy Franklin clears his longest reception prop (19.5 yards) at KC.
- My prediction for Chris Oladokun’s first half over/under passing yards (67.5).
With a division win scenario in play, Denver goes to Kansas City for Chiefs vs Broncos on TNF.
In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the divisional matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction: TNF Player Props
Troy Franklin Longest Reception Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The number strikes me as low for a receiver who has enjoyed recent success against this benchmark.
Franklin cleared this number in two straight and three of his last five games. At home against Kansas City, he notched four receptions for 84 yards, including a 35-yard bomb.
Inclusive of his performance against the Chiefs, Franklin excels against zone coverage.
Four Broncos have seen at least 27 targets against zone – Franklin leads all four with a 21.8% target share.
His 597 yards against zone trail Courtland Sutton by only 22 yards. His 46 targets equal Sutton’s output with his 234 yards after catch against zone, leading that group.
Over the last few weeks, Kansas City has struggled to contain deep shots. C.J. Stroud (53), Justin Herbert (37) and Cam Ward (34) all completed a long attempt.
Last week, Ward’s longest completion went to running back Tyjae Spears. But he also completed a 25-yard shot to Elic Ayomanor and a 30-yard pass to Chimere Dike.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has completed at least one 20-yard pass in every game save one. Pair that with Franklin’s record against zone coverage, and I predict he clears a lower bar.
Chris Oladokun First Half Under 67.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Broncos have played three games with Patrick Surtain against “bad” quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Jake Browning and Cam Ward.
None of those quarterbacks cleared this benchmark. Browning came the closest at 66 first-half yards, but he had Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Ward also came close with 61 yards, but still finished under the number. Fields, meanwhile, threw for only 45 yards FOR THE ENTIRE GAME.
Last week, Gardner Minshew played most of the first half. He and Oladokun combined for only 55 first-half passing yards against the Titans.
For the season, Tennessee trails Denver by 17 spots in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Of potential greater concern for Kansas City? The offensive line is completely decimated. Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown also might miss the game.
Even Patrick Mahomes struggled against Houston behind this line. In the first half, he threw for only 68 yards in the opening half.
Against a comparable pass defense, I predict Oladokun is at least two yards worse, maybe more.
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