- I predict Jaxon Smith-Njigba finishes over 97.5 yards (-115) against the 49ers.
- My prediction for Brock Purdy’s over/under passing yards prop (256.5 yards).
Two NFC West teams battle for the No. 1 seed on Saturday in 49ers vs Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium.
In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the division matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
49ers vs Seahawks Prediction: Week 18 Player Props
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Although it’s a high number to clear, Smith-Njigba bested this line in nine games already. That includes a 124-yard performance against the Niners in Week 1.
Sixteen games later, he gets a battered and bruised Niners secondary. Upton Stout likely misses Saturday’s game with a concussion in a secondary that isn’t good to start.
For the season, San Francisco ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA. In three prior games against teams 25th or worse, Smith-Njigba notched 124, 129, and 167 yards.
Even more “beneficial” for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year leader: Rashid Shaheed is questionable with a concussion.
Last week, Shaheed played only 12 snaps. His absence led to a 12-target game for Smith-Njigba after a 13-target effort against the Rams two weeks ago.
Even if Shaheed returns, it’s still a favorable matchup for Seattle’s WR1.
San Francisco runs zone coverage at a 75% clip this season, and JSN recorded 1,260 yards against zone, excluding Week 17.
Given those factors – and a potential negative game script – I predict Smith-Njigba reaches triple digits.
Brock Purdy Over 256.5 Passing Yards (+105)
Seattle ranks second in pass defense DVOA but has generally struggled against competent quarterbacks.
Only three times all year has the defense played a quarterback at +0.200 EPA per play or higher. Two came against Matthew Stafford, and one came against Purdy.
Stafford threw for only 130 yards in the first Rams-Seahawks game. However, he constantly started with short fields thanks to four Sam Darnold interceptions.
In Seattle, Stafford and Purdy threw for 457 and 277 yards, respectively. Even recently, Cam Ward cleared this benchmark at home against the Seahawks defense.
Purdy returned from injury and stayed under this benchmark in three straight. However, his last three contests saw him throw for 295, 295 and 303 yards.
The opposition does leave something to be desired going against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Chicago. But he also has a clear path to exploiting the Seahawks pass defense.
Seattle allows the fifth-most yards to tight ends and the sixth-most yards to running backs.
That presents a particular problem vs. San Francisco, which streamlines targets to George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
Assuming the former returns from injury, I predict Purdy surpasses this bar for the fourth straight game.
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