To close out a six-game NFL wild-card round, it’s Steelers vs Texans from Pittsburgh.
In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
Steelers vs Texans Prediction: MNF Player Props
Aaron Rodgers Under 205.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Rodgers enters a potential sell-high spot after a 294-yard performance against Baltimore, his highest output of the season.
Even though D.K. Metcalf returns from suspension on Monday, Pittsburgh faces a tough test through the air. Additionally, the offense has to contend with a strong pass rush.
That should lead to quicker throws from Rodgers, as bettors saw in Week 17 at Cleveland. Against a comparable pass defense, he managed only 168 yards.
Even when Rodgers operated with a full complement of receivers, he struggled against good pass defenses.
In Week 2, he managed only 203 passing yards against Seattle. Then he faced Minnesota in Week 4, notching only 200 passing yards.
Across the entire season, Rodgers finished 9-8 to the under against this benchmark. His eight successes came against pass defenses carrying a +13.9% pass defense DVOA rating.
Houston enters Monday’s game carrying a -18.7% rating, the second-best mark in the league. Matt Burke’s unit also ranks second in defensive variance.
On average, Houston allows 185.4 passing yards per game. That’s before adjusting for the third-highest set of opposing offenses.
Woody Marks Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Pittsburgh’s rushing splits radically improve when first-round pick Derrick Harmon plays.
Right out of the gate, the Steelers allowed Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker to clear 100 yards. Harmon also played under 60% of snaps at Cincinnati as Chase Brown cleared 100 yards.
He also missed games in Weeks 13 and 14 against Buffalo and Baltimore. Pittsburgh allowed over 200 yards on the ground to both teams.
But since Harmon returned in Week 16, the rush defense took a major step forward. Since that game against Detroit, Pittsburgh ranks fifth in rush EPA per play and first in rush success rate.
Jahmyr Gibbs managed only two yards against the defense. Henry racked up 126 yards, but it came behind a more efficient blocking unit.
For the season, Houston ranks 32nd in run-block win rate compared to 17th for Baltimore.
Marks finished 9-7 to the under against this benchmark in 16 games this year.
Those seven successes generally came against bad run defenses. Overall, the seven opponents averaged a rush defense DVOA rating of -6.5%.
Pittsburgh, across the entire season, arrives at MNF owning a -14.7% rush defense DVOA rating.
Given those factors, I predict Marks struggles to gain much on the ground.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
