3 Historical Trends for Picking NFL MVP Winner

Recently, a formula has emerged for identifying an NFL MVP winner based on NFL odds.

Here are three trends that most, if not all, recent MVP winners share from a historical standpoint.

3 Betting Trends for Picking an NFL MVP Winner

Quarterbacks Dominate the Award

Odds reflect this trend as a quarterback has won the award every year since 2012. Dating back to the 2000 NFL season, a quarterback failed to win MVP only four times.

Those four occurrences saw running backs win the award while posting historically dominant seasons.

Three of the four cleared 1,800 rushing yards, including almost 2,100 by Adrian Peterson in 2012. Marshall Faulk won in 2000 while leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns.

The same proved true for Shaun Alexander in 2005 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006.

Still, it’s unlikely we see a resurgence of running backs winning the award. In 2024, Saquon Barkley finished only 92 yards behind Peterson’s 2012 total and still finished third in voting.

Team Success is a Must

MVP differs radically from an award like NFL DPOY. In order to win the award, quarterbacks must play for a team that racks up wins in a hurry.

Since Peyton Manning in 2013, every quarterback that won MVP played for a team that won at least 11 games. Eleven of those 12 quarterbacks led their team to at least 12 wins.

The trend holds true if you expand the sample size. Since 2000, only three MVP winners saw their team amass under 10.5 victories. Two came in years where a running back won.

Preseason expectations have signaled some previous winners, too. Rarely does a quarterback come out of nowhere to win MVP when his team is expected to perform poorly.

Since 2013, only one MVP winner played for a team with a preseason win total set at eight wins or less.

That’s Matt Ryan, whose Falcons won 11 games against a 7.5 win total en route to the Super Bowl.

Advanced Metrics Support MVP Wins

Every MVP winner since Manning in 2013 ranked 10th or better in adjusted EPA per play the year they won MVP.

All but two winners – Cam Newton in 2015 and Lamar Jackson in 2023 – placed inside the five-best EPA per play marks across the entire league.

More often than not, these quarterbacks pace the league in a key advanced metric. Since 2013, the MVP winner has led the NFL in adjusted EPA per play 10 times in 13 seasons.

Here are the quarterbacks that ranked 10th or better in adjusted EPA per play last season:

• Drake Maye: +0.322
• Jordan Love: +0.289
• Brock Purdy: +0.281
• Matthew Stafford: +0.252
• Josh Allen: +0.242
• Daniel Jones: +0.220
• Dak Prescott: +0.201
• Patrick Mahomes: +0.199
• Sam Darnold: +0.188
• Mac Jones: +0.168