3 NFL Player Props for MNF: Commanders vs Bears

Chicago goes for its revenge against Washington in Commanders vs Bears on MNF. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Commanders vs Bears Prediction: Player Props

Rome Odunze Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Odunze has cleared this number only twice in four games, including once by the hook. 

But his best performance came against a man-heavy coverage scheme. In Week 2 against Detroit, Odunze amassed 128 receiving yards on seven receptions. 

That game also saw Odunze receive 11 targets, his highest output this season. 

A similar stat line should be expected against Washington. 

The Commanders deploy man coverage at a top-10 rate in the league and have allowed the second-highest first-down-plus-touchdown rate from those looks, per PFF. 

Odunze’s 39.1% target share against man leads the Bears. 

Plus, it’s a chance to sell what I consider to be a fraudulent Washington defense. 

The Commanders rank 10th in defensive DVOA, but it has come against the third-easiest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Four of the five offenses Washington has played rank 19th or worse in pass offense DVOA. This game represents a step up for Washington as the Bears rank 14th in that category. 

Pair that with Odunze’s explosive performance against man coverage, and I predict he clears this benchmark for a second straight game. 

Deebo Samuel Over 5.5 Receptions (-140) & Over 58.5 Yards (-115)

Samuel has already cleared this benchmark four times in five games this season. And that’s before you account for Jayden Daniels’ two-game absences. 

The Bears run man coverage at an alarmingly high percentage. Only one team plays the scheme at a higher rate than Chicago. 

Bettors can look to Samuel’s Week 1 performance against the Giants for inspiration. The Giants play man coverage at the league’s third-highest rate, 1.1% less than Chicago. 

Samuel exploded for seven receptions and 77 yards in that matchup. 

This season, Samuel leads all Commanders receivers in targets against man coverage. 

Across the entire league, Samuel ranks 15th of 34 in PFF’s receiving grades against man, amongst receivers with at least nine targets. 

Plus, he’s getting a bad Bears pass defense. Chicago ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.

Given those factors, I predict a big result from Samuel on MNF. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Commanders vs Bears