49ers vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 8:16 AM
  • The 49ers (0-0) are -6.5 point favorites vs the Bears (0-0)
  • Watch the game on FOX
  • Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points

The San Francisco 49ers (0-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm ET in Chicago.

The 49ers are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The 49ers vs. Bears Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.

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49ers vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
San Francisco 49ers-6.5 -11540.5 -110-300
Chicago Bears +6.5 -10540.5 -110+240

49ers vs. Bears Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends the model predicts the 49ers will win this Week 1 NFL matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the 49ers and Bears, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best 49ers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Eli Mitchell has hit the Carries Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.65 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • David Montgomery has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 36% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs 49ers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Deebo Samuel +450
Elijah Mitchell +600
Trey Lance +900
George Kittle +900
David Montgomery +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs 49ers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Deebo Samuel -110
Elijah Mitchell +115
George Kittle +150
David Montgomery +150
Darnell Mooney +175

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs 49ers

Player Name Over Under
Brandon Aiyuk 49.5 -115 49.5 -110
David Montgomery 14.5 -120 14.5 -110
Jauan Jennings 16.5 -115 16.5 -115
Eli Mitchell 8.5 -110 8.5 -115
Kyle Juszczyk 7.5 -110 7.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs 49ers

Player Name Over Under
Eli Mitchell 61.5 -115 61.5 -110
Trey Lance 38.5 -115 38.5 -110
Justin Fields 33.5 -115 33.5 -115
David Montgomery 55.5 -110 55.5 -115
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.50 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.05 Units / 78% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have scored last in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.90 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The 49ers were 7-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception last season — tied for best in NFL. The Bears intercepted 8 passes last season — fourth-fewest in NFL.

The 49ers were 9-3 (.750) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — tied for ninth-best in NFL. The Bears turned the ball over 28 times last season — tied for third-most in NFL.

The 49ers were undefeated (6-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .533.

The 49ers were 1-2 (.333) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .165.

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Bears were winless (0-6) when losing at least one fumble last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .370.

The Bears were winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.

The Bears were winless (0-7) when allowing 27 or more points last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .198.

The Bears were 2-9 (.182) when not forcing a fumble last season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

Additional Matchup Notes for San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have a third down conversion rate of just 32.9% in the second half since the 2020 season — second-worst in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 34.6% in the second half since the 2020 season — second-best in NFL.

49ers WRs gained 2,763 yards on 180 receptions (15.4 YPR) last season — best in NFL. The Bears allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — third-worst in NFL.

The 49ers averaged 4.8 yards per carry on 1st Down last season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Bears allowed 4.9 yards per carry on first down last season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

The 49ers were 7-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception last season — tied for best in NFL. The Bears intercepted 8 passes last season — fourth-fewest in NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The 49ers started 19 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 4th quarter last season — most in NFL.

The 49ers had an average drive start position from the 18.6 yard line in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25.6.

The 49ers went three and out on 11% of their drives in the 3rd quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The 49ers started 12 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 2nd half last season — most in NFL.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Bears ran successful plays on 11% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bears ran successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bears ran successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Bears converted first downs on just 75 of 217 plays (35%) on 3rd down last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The 49ers defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 3rd quarter in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers defense averaged 36.7 defensive penalty yards per game (624/17) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22.9.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 37% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The 49ers defense did not allow a first down on any of their opponents’ 13 rush attempts on 3rd and long last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Bears defense sacked opposing QBs on 43% of pass attempts (48/111) when they pressured the QB last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Bears defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (48/526) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 52% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

The Bears’ opponents averaged just 11.5 completions per game (46 / 4) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20.9.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.