49ers vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2022, 9:13 AM
  • The 49ers (3-2) are -5 point favorites vs the Falcons (2-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The San Francisco 49ers (3-2) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) on Oct. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta.

The 49ers are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -5 (-105).

The 49ers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Falcons vs 49ers & all NFL games with BetMGM

49ers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
49ers-5 -10545.5 -110-225
Falcons +5 -11545.5 -110+180

49ers vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this Week 6 game with 64.0% confidence.

49ers vs Falcons Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 6 with 62.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the 49ers and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best 49ers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Completions Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Ray-Ray McCloud has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.05 Units / 54% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs 49ers

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Deebo Samuel +600
    Jeff Wilson +600
    Brandon Aiyuk +1000
    George Kittle +1000
    Tyler Allgeier +1200

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs 49ers

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Deebo Samuel -105
    Jeff Wilson -105
    Tyler Allgeier +175
    Drake London +180
    Brandon Aiyuk +180

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs 49ers

    Player Name Over Under
    Jeff Wilson Jr. 8.5 -110 8.5 -120
    Brandon Aiyuk 48.5 -115 48.5 -115
    Kyle Juszczyk 8.5 -110 8.5 -120
    George Kittle 42.5 -115 42.5 -115
    Drake London 51.5 -115 51.5 -120

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs 49ers

    Player Name Over Under
    Jimmy Garoppolo 0.5 -120 0.5 -110
    Jeff Wilson Jr. 65.5 -115 65.5 -115
    Tyler Allgeier 46.5 -110 46.5 -120
    Deebo Samuel 16.5 -110 16.5 -120
    Marcus Mariota 31.5 -120 31.5 -110
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • 49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers have gone 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

    • 49ers are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -7.39% ROI
    • 49ers are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
    • 49ers are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI

    Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 5-0 (+5 Units / 90.91% ROI).

    • Falcons are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -19.8% ROI
    • Falcons are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
    • Falcons are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

    San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

    The 49ers are 11-6 (.647) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.

    The 49ers are undefeated (4-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

    The 49ers are undefeated (7-0) vs bottom 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

    The 49ers are undefeated (10-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .652.

    Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

    The Falcons are winless (0-3) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .638.

    The Falcons are winless (0-1) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .491.

    The Falcons are 3-1 (.750) when passing for more than 300 yards since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .552.

    The Falcons are 1-10 (.091) when getting more than 3 points since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .302.

    Additional Matchup Notes for San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons

    The Falcons ran successful plays on just 36.0% of pass attempts last week — tied for third-worst in NFL. 49ers allowed successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts in Week 3 — best in NFL.

    The Falcons have thrown for 926 passing yards in 5 games (just 185.2 YPG) this season — third-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed just 177.8 passing yards per game this season — third-best in NFL.

    The Falcons have thrown the ball just 41.4% of the time this season — second-lowest in NFL. The 49ers have allowed just 5.2 yards per dropback this season — tied for second-best in NFL.

    The 49ers had a third down conversion rate of 58.3% last week — fifth-best in NFL. The Falcons defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 60.0% in Week 3 — tied for third-worst in NFL.

    The 49ers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 19.8% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on just 16.9% of passing plays since the 2021 season — worst in NFL.

    The 49ers are 11-6 (.647) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.

    San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The 49ers have run 15% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

    The 49ers have not recorded a TD in 13 drives in close and late situations this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.3.

    The 49ers have thrown the ball 16% of the time (4 Pass Attempts/25 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

    The 49ers have not gone three and out on any of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

    Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Falcons have thrown 56% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 71%.

    The Falcons have thrown the ball 41% of the time (123 Pass Attempts/297 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

    The Falcons have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Falcons ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 37.0 in the red zone (9 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.9.

    The 49ers defense has allowed just 2.4 points per game to opposing offenses (12 points / 5 games) in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

    The 49ers defense has allowed 6.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,388 yards / 228 touches) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.5.

    The 49ers defense has sacked opponents 21 times this season — most in NFL.

    Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

    The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

    The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (18/593) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

    The Falcons defense did not record a sack (52 pass attempts) in Week 5 — tied for worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

    The Falcons defense has pressured opposing QBs on 17% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

    Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Falcons vs 49ers and all NFL games with BetMGM

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.