49ers vs Packers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

Green Bay Packers' Jordan Love warms up before an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
  • The Packers are -2.5 point favorites vs the 49ers
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The San Francisco 49ers (5-5-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (7-3-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Green Bay, WI.

The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The 49ers vs. Packers Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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49ers vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
49ers+2.5 -11047.5 -110+115
Packers -2.5 -11047.5 -110-140

49ers vs. Packers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 54.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

49ers vs Packers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread with 68.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for 49ers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Brock Purdy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jauan Jennings has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Brandon Aiyuk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • George Kittle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Tucker Kraft has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Tucker Kraft has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jordan Love has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.15 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.43 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+12.15 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.85 Units / 27% ROI)

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers art 4-6 (-2.5 Units / -22.94% ROI).

  • 49ers are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -26.56% ROI
  • 49ers are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • 49ers are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / ROI

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 4-6 (-2.65 Units / -23.98% ROI).

  • Packers are 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 26.37% ROI
  • Packers are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -13.64% ROI
  • Packers are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The 49ers were winless (0-4) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The 49ers were 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Packers are 4-1 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Packers were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.

The Packers are undefeated (6-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .504.

The Packers are 6-2 (.750) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .627.

Additional Matchup Notes for San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have a third down conversion rate of 23.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 22.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Packers have run successful plays on just 38.6% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on just 43.2% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Packers went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — T-best in NFL. The 49ers forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run successful plays on 53.4% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 50.4% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have been successful on 49.3% of plays they have ran since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Packers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 44.7% of plays since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run successful plays on 47.4% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 51.8% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers ran successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of plays against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers completed passes for 20+ yards on 75 of their 491 total passing attempts (15%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 51% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of plays against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Packers targeted RBs 41% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/17 plays) in Week 11 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Packers ran 53% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense has not allowed a successful play on any pass attempt on contested throws since Week 8 — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The 49ers defense have allowed -0.50 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 15% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 34.4 on 3rd and long (39 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 83.0.

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 51% of pass attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Packers defense averaged 0.4 interceptions per game (7/17) last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 58% of pass attempts first read passes since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.