49ers Playoff Odds: How Trey Lance Injury Changed the Market

We’re just two weeks into a fresh football season, so there are still loads of opportunities to bet on NFL.

But if you set aside the straightforward NFL spreads for a second, there’s a much more interesting futures market worth considering.

The San Francisco 49ers weren’t the favorite in the NFC West this year – that would be the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams – but the 49ers were handicapped as a real divisional threat, and a likely playoff team.

There was just one problem. Who was going to play quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance?

That question lingered up to the start of the 2022 season, with contract drama and alpha status debated until Week 1. 

Even now, in Week 3, the 49ers’ starting quarterback job continues to change.

Who Is the Starting QB for 49ers?

Jimmy Garoppolo will play the remainder of the 2022 season as the 49ers’ starting quarterback.

Garoppolo’s return to the starting job in San Francisco comes after former starter Trey Lance broke his ankle in the first half of the 49ers’ Week 2 game against Seattle.

What Were the 49ers’ Playoff Odds Before Trey Lance Got Hurt?

At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the 49ers were -140 to make the playoffs prior to San Francisco’s Week 2 game against Seattle when Lance broke his ankle. 

What Were the 49ers’ Playoff Odds After Trey Lance Got Hurt?

At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the 49ers were -190 to make the playoffs immediately following San Francisco’s Week 2 game against Seattle when Jimmy Garoppolo took over as quarterback.

49ers Starting Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Trey Lance

The change in the 49ers’ odds market coincides with Garoppolo’s return to his former position as starting quarterback, so it’s unlikely that the betting market looks unfavorably on Garoppolo’s play at quarterback.

Some of this NFL odds evolution may be related to the fact that the 49ers’ win over Seattle evened their record at 1-1, which is a more statistically friendly record for playoff aspirants.

However, San Francisco closed as a 9-point favorite over the Seahawks, which means a likely win was already built into the NFL playoff odds market prior to Week 2. 

As a result, it’s safe to assume that the current -190 price is largely a comment on the 49ers’ higher short-term ceiling with Garoppolo.

Jimmy Garoppolo New Contract

Garoppolo spent much of the 2022 offseason in a complex state of flux. 

There was virtually no trade market for Garoppolo, as the quarterback position across the NFL (when healthy) is as deep as it’s ever been in modern times. He’s also too good to settle for a backup role and a corresponding backup paycheck.

Jimmy Garoppolo's contract:

-$6.5M guaranteed base salary
-$500k per-game roster bonuses
-$250k per game if he takes 25% of the snaps
-$100k per win in those games
-$500k if he plays 50% of snaps in playoff game & NFCCG
-$500k if he wins NFCCG
-$1M if he plays 50% of snaps in SB

— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) September 18, 2022

Garoppolo finally negotiated a new contract to remain with San Francisco in the waning moments of the offseason, and it’s a good thing, too. The 49ers will now remain firmly in the playoff odds market throughout the season.

Previously, Lance’s backup would have been rookie Brock Purdy from Iowa State.

Garoppolo was due to be paid about $7 million on his old contract structure; with the new contract and performance incentives in place, he’s likely to make closer to $12 million this year.

Keep a close eye on the 49ers’ NFL betting lines throughout the year. Even with Lance now sidelined, this is clearly a betting market with a lot of inborn volatility.