- The Atlanta Falcons are +150 to make the postseason in 2025-26.
- Atlanta finished 2-6 in its final eight games last year to finish second in the NFC South.
- Why the Falcons are a prime live betting candidate for a 2025 postseason berth.
Based on NFL odds and Falcons playoff odds, the Atlanta Falcons are predicted to miss the postseason this year.
Expectations were high for the Falcons before 2024, but the Falcons ultimately missed the postseason. Now, oddsmakers price the Falcons at +150 to make the playoffs.
Conversely, the Falcons sit at -185 to miss the postseason in 2025.
Prediction: Will the Atlanta Falcons Make the Playoffs?
Without knowing how Atlanta’s turnover luck breaks in 2025, I predict Atlanta is a strong live betting candidate to make the playoffs
Atlanta’s results in 2024 can be explained largely by their turnover record in games:
- When Atlanta won the turnover battle: 6-0
- When Atlanta won OR tied on turnover: 7-2
- When Atlanta lost the turnover battle: 1-7
Most of those issues came at quarterback. Atlanta quarterbacks threw 19 interceptions in 2024, which is tied for the third-most in the league.
While it’s difficult to place trust in a three-start Michael Penix Jr. to rapidly solve those issues, a case for optimism exists on Atlanta’s offense.
The Falcons ranked 14th in offensive DVOA last season, albeit against the 20th-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Coordinator Zac Robinson’s best stretch came in Weeks 16-18.
In those three games – all Penix starts – Atlanta led the league in offensive success rate while sitting seventh in EPA per play, per rbsdm.com.
Comparatively, Atlanta ranked eighth and 15th in those respective metrics over the first 15 games.
But two concerns exist with Atlanta. In that final three-game stretch, they faced the Giants, Commanders and Panthers. Those teams ranked 28th, 23rd and 32nd in defensive DVOA.
Additionally, I don’t know how futures backers embrace a defense that largely only played well against bad offenses.
Atlanta’s best defensive stretch came in Weeks 13-16. In those contests, Atlanta ranked first in EPA per play allowed and ninth in success rate allowed.
But only three of those games saw actual successes. In Week 13, they played the Chargers off a bye while LA played on short rest.
After surrendering 42 points to Minnesota in Week 14, they faced the Raiders and Giants. Those teams were quarterbacked by Desmond Ridder and Drew Lock.
Next season, I question how Atlanta’s defense will make an improvement. Last season, Atlanta ranked 29th in defensive DVOA against the 24th-hardest set of offenses.
Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, Atlanta plays the league’s 16th-hardest set of offenses.
Maybe the arrival of Jeff Ulbrich changes the defense, but I still want to wait for early returns.
While I lean to this team making the playoffs in 2025, I’ll aim to find a live betting angle during the season.
Atlanta Falcons Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +150 | 40% |
When Was the Last Time the Atlanta Falcons Won the Super Bowl?
The Falcons are one of 12 teams to have never won the Super Bowl.
However, Atlanta has reached the championship game twice in team history: 1999 and 2017, the latter of which was the infamous come-from-behind win by the Patriots against them.
Atlanta Falcons Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +8000 | 1.23% |
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