Bears vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 09, 2025, 5:48 AM

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FILE - FedEx Field, home of the Washington Commanders NFL football team, is shown before the start of a football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, in Landover, Md. A group led by Josh Harris and Mitchell Rales that includes Magic Johnson has an agreement in principle to buy the NFL's Washington Commanders from longtime owner Dan Snyder for a North American professional sports team record $6 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Thursday, April 13, 2023, because the deal had not been announced. (AP Photo/Nick Wass, File)

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

The Commanders are -4.5 point favorites vs the Bears
Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
Watch this game on ABC

The Chicago Bears (2-2-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (3-2-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Landover, MD.

The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Bears vs. Commanders Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Bears vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bears	+4.5 -110	49.5 -110	185
Commanders	-4.5 -110	49.5 -110	-225

Bears vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the will win this game with confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bears vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the will cover the spread with confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 41% ROI)
Caleb Williams has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Cairo Santos has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI)
D.J. Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Luke McCaffrey has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Interceptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Commanders vs Bears

Player Name	Over	Under
Jayden Daniels (WAS)	42.5 -115	42.5 -115

Bears Best Bets:

The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.20 Units / 48% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 19% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.30 Units / 11% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.15 Units / 10% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 30% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.72 Units / 28% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.67 Units / 29% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Bears are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 2.44% ROI
Bears are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Bears are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 3-2 (+0.85 Units / 15.89% ROI).

Commanders are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 19.44% ROI
Commanders are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Commanders are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 18.0 when the opposing QB has scrambled (58 Pass Attempts) since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62.5.

The Commanders defense have allowed 10.8 yards per play first read passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.8.

The Commanders defense allowed 9 broken tackles in Week 5 — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense has allowed 12.7 yards per completion (1,272 yards/100 completions) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.6.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Commanders have run successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 64% of rush attempts in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Commanders have averaged just 2.8 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Commanders have converted late downs on 3 of 50 plays (6%) with over 10 yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders