Bears vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

min read
Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • The Falcons (4-6) are -3 point favorites vs the Bears (3-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 50 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Chicago Bears (3-8) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (5-6) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta.

The are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Bears vs. Falcons Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Bears vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bears
Falcons

Bears vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this Week 11 game with 65.8% confidence.

Bears vs Falcons Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 11 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bears and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.55 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Drake London has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Bryan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.65 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+4.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 4-5 (-1.6 Units / -14.41% ROI).

  • Bears are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -9.38% ROI
  • Bears are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Bears are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).

  • Falcons are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -15.52% ROI
  • Falcons are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Falcons are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Bears are winless (0-10) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .384.

The Bears were winless (0-7) vs top 10 offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .376.

The Bears are 2-10 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.

The Bears are 6-7 (.462) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .779.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Falcons are winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .629.

The Falcons are 3-9 (.250) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .451.

The Falcons are 2-5 (.286) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .455.

The Falcons are 1-4 (.200) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons

Falcons RBs have averaged 126.3 rushing yards per game this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed an average of 143.5 rushing yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Falcons RBs have 8 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Bears have allowed 17 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.

Falcons RBs have averaged 5.4 touches per game in the red zone this season — second-highest in NFL. The Bears have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Bears scored on 50% of their drives last week — tied for third-best in NFL. The Falcons defense allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in Week 10 — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Bears have scored on 52.4% of their drives since Week 7 — second-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 48.8% of opponent drives since Week 7 — worst in NFL.

The Bears have run successful plays on 45.5% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since Week 7 — third-best in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on just 8.8% of passing plays since Week 7 — second-worst in NFL.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Bears have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 40% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Bears have been sacked on 21% of pass attempts (13/63) in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Bears have run the ball on 46% of plays (60 carries/131 plays) on 3rd down this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Bears have thrown the ball 34% of the time (207 Pass Attempts/601 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Falcons have thrown 59% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 71%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Falcons have converted first downs on 13 of 20 plays (65%) on plays up the middle since Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 40% of the time (231 Pass Attempts/585 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Bears defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (48/526) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 43% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Bears defense has allowed 17 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Bears defense has allowed 15 rushing TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (31/985) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (18/593) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense has hurried opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 30.2 pass attempts (392 Pass Attempts/13 Sacks) this season — 2nd-worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.9.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.