Bears vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:06 AM
  • The Giants (2-1) are -3 point favorites vs the Bears (2-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Chicago Bears (2-1) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (2-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in East Rutherford.

The Giants are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Bears vs. Giants Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Bears vs. Giants Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bears+3 -10539.5 -110+145
Giants -3 -11539.5 -110-175

Bears vs. Giants Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Giants will win this Week 4 game with 62.3% confidence.

Bears vs Giants Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Giants will cover the spread this Week 4 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bears and Giants, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Byron Pringle has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.65 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Ryan Griffin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.95 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Giants players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kenny Golladay has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Daniel Jones has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Kenny Golladay has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Daniel Jones has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Kadarius Toney has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.40 Units / 39% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Giants vs Bears

Player Name Over Under
Saquon Barkley 27.5 -115 27.5 -115
Cole Kmet 22.5 -115 22.5 -115
Darnell Mooney 34.5 -115 34.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Giants vs Bears

Player Name Over Under
Daniel Jones 31.5 -110 31.5 -115
Saquon Barkley 81.5 -115 81.5 -115
Justin Fields 37.5 -115 37.5 -115
  • The Chicago Bears have scored last in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 94% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.15 Units / 94% ROI)
  • The New York Giants have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI).

  • Bears are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 61.64% ROI
  • Bears are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Bears are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Giants have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Giants are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 53.03% ROI
  • Giants are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI
  • Giants are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants

The Bears are 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Giants have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — tied for second-worst in NFL.

The Bears were winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.

The Bears are winless (0-6) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .379.

The Bears are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.

New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Giants are winless (0-10) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .272.

The Giants are 1-11-1 (.077) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .356.

The Giants are 1-10-1 (.083) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.

The Giants are 2-13-1 (.125) when committing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .394.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants

Giants RBs have averaged 3.8 yards after contact per carry this season — best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 2.9 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — second-worst in NFL.

The Giants have thrown for 4,022 passing yards in 20 games (just 201.1 YPG) since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed just 192.6 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL.

The Giants have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 46.7% of pass attempts this season — second-worst in NFL. The Bears have pressured opposing QBs on 34.1% of passing plays this season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Bears have rushed the ball on 62.0% of plays from scrimmage this season — highest in NFL. The Giants have allowed 5.4 yards per carry this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Bears RBs have averaged 2.8 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed 2.8 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Bears rushed the ball on 60.7% of plays from scrimmage last week — highest in NFL. The Giants allowed 6.4 yards per carry in Week 3 — fourth-worst in NFL.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Bears have gone three and out 7 times in the 2nd quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Bears have started 5 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Bears have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 56% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Bears have been sacked on 23% of pass attempts (3/13) in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5%.

New York Giants Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Giants ran successful plays on 28% of plays in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Giants ran successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Giants have allowed a QB Hit on 32% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Giants have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 47% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Bears defense has allowed 24 of 54 (44%) first downs through the air (44%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Bears defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (48/526) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Bears defense has allowed 30 of 54 (56%) first downs on the ground this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 52% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

New York Giants Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Giants defense has no interceptions and 4 TD passes allowed this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

The Giants defense has allowed first downs on 15% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Giants defense has no interceptions (93 pass attempts) this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 44.0.

The Giants defense did not record a sack (31 pass attempts) in Week 3 — tied for worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.6.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.