Bears vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7, MNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:30 AM
  • The Patriots (3-3) are -8 point favorites vs the Bears (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Chicago Bears (2-4) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (3-3) on Oct. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Foxborough.

The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -8 (-110).

The Bears vs. Patriots Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Bears vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 7

  Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Bears +8 -110 39.5 -110 +300
Patriots -8 -110 39.5 -110 -375

Bears vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this Week 7 game with 78.0% confidence.

Bears vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread this Week 7 with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bears and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Ryan Griffin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI)

 

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Damien Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 31% ROI)

 

 

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+6.85 Units / 108% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)

 

 

  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 90% ROI)

 

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 2-3 (-1.4 Units / -20.9% ROI).

  • Bears are 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -11.28% ROI
  • Bears are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Bears are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 3-2 (+0.9 Units / 14.17% ROI).

  • Patriots are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 3.52% ROI
  • Patriots are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Patriots are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Bears are 1-5 (.167) when allowing 250 or more passing yards since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .470.

The Bears are winless (0-9) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .377.

The Bears are winless (0-8) vs top 10 offenses since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .395.

The Bears are winless (0-4) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .281.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Patriots are winless (0-1) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Patriots are undefeated (5-0) when not committing any turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .740.

The Patriots are 1-3 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .457.

The Patriots are 13-5 (.722) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots

No Matchup notes for this Game

No Matchup notes for this Game

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Bears have thrown the ball 35% of the time (141 Pass Attempts/402 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Bears have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 52% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Bears have allowed a QB Hit on 40% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Bears have been sacked on 20% of pass attempts (9/44) in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Patriots have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots have completed passes for 20+ yards on 91 of their 742 total passing attempts (12%) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The Patriots have targeted WRs 25% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/28 plays) in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Patriots have completed passes for 20+ yards on 31 of their 207 total passing attempts (15%) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Bears defense has allowed 57 of 125 (46%) first downs through the air (46%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 30% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bears defense has allowed 227 of 411 (55%) first downs through the air (55%) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Bears defense has allowed 68 of 125 (54%) first downs on the ground this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

Offenses facing the Patriots have thrown deep balls on 41% of pass attempts (14/34) on 3rd and long this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.4 (794 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.3.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.