Bears vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:14 AM
  • The Vikings (3-1) are -7.5 point favorites vs the Bears (2-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 44 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Chicago Bears (2-2) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (3-1) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Vikings are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Bears vs. Vikings Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

Bet now on Vikings vs Bears & all NFL games with BetMGM

Bears vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bears+7.5 -11044 -110+260
Vikings -7.5 -11044 -110-350

Bears vs. Vikings Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 5 game with 71.0% confidence.

Bears vs Vikings Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread this Week 5 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bears and Vikings, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ryan Griffin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Byron Pringle has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 away games (+4.65 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jalen Reagor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 51% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Dalvin Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Vikings vs Bears

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Justin Jefferson +550
    Dalvin Cook +600
    Adam Thielen +700
    Khalil Herbert +900
    Alexander Mattison +1100

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Vikings vs Bears

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Justin Jefferson -115
    Dalvin Cook -110
    Khalil Herbert +130
    Adam Thielen +130
    David Montgomery +145

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Vikings vs Bears

    Player Name Over Under
    K.J. Osborn 24.5 -110 24.5 -115
    Irv Smith Jr. 25.5 -115 25.5 -115
    Justin Jefferson 83.5 -115 83.5 -115
    Cole Kmet 26.5 -115 26.5 -115
    Darnell Mooney 49.5 -115 49.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Vikings vs Bears

    Player Name Over Under
    Justin Fields 39.5 -110 39.5 -115
    Dalvin Cook 78.5 -115 78.5 -115
    Kirk Cousins 1.5 -110 1.5 -115
    Alexander Mattison 22.5 -120 22.5 -110
  • The Chicago Bears have scored last in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.90 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.70 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 1-2 (-1.3 Units / -28.89% ROI).

    • Bears are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 26.88% ROI
    • Bears are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
    • Bears are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / ROI

    Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 1-3 (-2.4 Units / -53.33% ROI).

    • Vikings are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 27.97% ROI
    • Vikings are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Vikings are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

    Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

    The Bears were winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.

    The Bears are winless (0-7) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .377.

    The Bears are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.

    The Bears are 3-13 (.188) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .370.

    Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

    The Vikings are 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — ninth-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed an average of 136.9 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Vikings were 5-1 (.833) vs bottom 10 run defenses last season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .635.

    The Vikings are 6-5 (.545) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .735.

    The Vikings are 1-7 (.125) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2021 season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .325.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

    The Vikings have thrown the ball 73.7% of the time in the red zone this season — highest in NFL. The Bears have allowed a completion rate of 70.0% when defending in the red zone this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Vikings are 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — ninth-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed an average of 136.9 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Bears went three and out on 33.3% of their drives last week — tied for worst in NFL. Vikings forced three and outs on 30% of opponent drives in Week 3 — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

    The Bears have a third down conversion rate of just 35.1% since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 36.3% since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL.

    The Bears have rushed the ball on 75.9% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone this season — highest in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.

    Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Bears have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 56% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

    The Bears have averaged 117.8 passing yards per game (471/4) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 243.4.

    The Bears have thrown the ball 30% of the time (66 Pass Attempts/217 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

    The Bears have been sacked on 20% of pass attempts (16/82) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

    Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Vikings have not drawn any flags for offensive holding this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

    The Vikings have an average drive start position from the 38.4 yard line in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24.1.

    The Vikings have run successful plays on 9% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

    The Vikings have run successful plays on 27% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Bears defense has allowed 44 of 73 (60%) first downs on the ground this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

    The Bears defense has allowed 29 of 73 (40%) first downs through the air (40%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

    The Bears defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (48/526) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

    The Bears defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 on 3rd and short (5 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

    Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Vikings have been flagged 0 times for 10+ yards on defense this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

    The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 70% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

    The Vikings defense has allowed 3 of 10 (30%) TDs through the air this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

    The Vikings defense has allowed 7 rushing TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

    Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Vikings vs Bears and all NFL games with BetMGM

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.