- The Bills (13-3) are -5.5 point favorites vs the Bengals (12-4)
- Total (Over/Under): 48 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (13-3) on Sunday, Jan. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Orchard Park.
The Bills are betting favorites in this AFC Divisional Round playoff game, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Bengals vs. Bills Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.
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Bengals vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under, AFC Divisional Round:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bengals | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 |
| Bills | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -250 |
Bengals vs. Bills Prediction for AFC Divisional Round
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this AFC Divisional Round game with 72.8% confidence.
Bengals vs Bills Spread Prediction for AFC Divisional Round
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread in this AFC Divisional Round with 58.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bengals and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joe Burrow has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Tyler Boyd has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+6.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joe Burrow has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Devin Singletary has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 25% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Bengals
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | +700 |
| Joe Mixon | +850 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +900 |
| Gabriel Davis | +900 |
| Josh Allen | +1000 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Bengals
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | +110 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +110 |
| Joe Mixon | +115 |
| Tee Higgins | +145 |
| Gabriel Davis | +160 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Bengals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 81.5 -110 | 81.5 -120 |
| Tee Higgins | 64.5 -110 | 64.5 -120 |
| Gabriel Davis | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 |
| Devin Singletary | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -115 |
| Hayden Hurst | 32.5 -120 | 32.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Bengals
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 39.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 |
| Samaje Perine | 14.5 -110 | 14.5 -120 |
| Joe Mixon | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen | 48.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 |
| Joe Burrow | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 -110 |
Bengals Best Bets for AFC Divisional Round:
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Bills Best Bets for AFC Divisional Round:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 12-5 (+6.35 Units / 33.87% ROI).
- Bengals are 13-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 9.05% ROI
- Bengals are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.95 Units / -15.73% ROI
- Bengals are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 8-8 (-0.75 Units / -4.01% ROI).
- Bills are 14-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 5.52% ROI
- Bills are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI
- Bills are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI
Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Bengals are undefeated (16-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
The Bengals are 8-3 (.727) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 27 times this season — third-most in NFL.
The Bengals are undefeated (11-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
The Bengals are undefeated (4-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .528.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals
The Bills are 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Bengals have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — fourth-worst in NFL.
The Bills are 18-2 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .568.
The Bills are undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .578.
The Bills are 17-3 (.850) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .560.
Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 47.3% in the second half this season — second-best in NFL. The Bengals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 41.6% in the second half this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bills are 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Bengals have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — fourth-worst in NFL.
The Bills had a third down conversion rate of 66.7% in the fourth quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL. The Bengals defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 61.5% in the 4th quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL.
Bengals RBs have averaged just 73.5 rushing yards per game this season — second-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average of just 99.7 rushing yards per game this season — fourth-best in NFL.
Bengals TEs had just 28.2 receiving yards per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed an average of just 24.8 receiving yards per game to TEs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — second-best in NFL.
The Bengals scored on 55.6% of their drives in the first quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — second-best in NFL. The Bills defense allowed scores on 44.4% of opponent drives in the first quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst in NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round
The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Bengals have run 58% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Bengals have thrown for 36 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Bengals have started 29 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — fewest in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round
The Bills have committed 6 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Bills have converted first downs on 201 of 418 plays (48%) on 3rd down since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills have an average drive start position from the 32.7 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.7.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Offenses facing the Bengals targeted WRs 39% of the time (28 Pass Attempts/72 plays) in the red zone this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round
The Bills’ opponents averaged 44.2 Passing Attempts per TD (531 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) last season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 22.3.
The Bills defense allowed first downs on just 31% of plays on 3rd down last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (298 completions/531 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.
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