Bengals vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Prop Bets – AFC Conference Championship

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 28, 2023, 12:59 PM
  • The Bengals (12-4) are +1 point underdogs vs the Chiefs (14-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) on Jan. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm EST in Kansas City for the AFC Conference Championship playoff game.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this game, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Bengals vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under, AFC Conference Championship

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bengals+1 -11048 -110+100
Chiefs -1 -11048 -110-120

Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction for AFC Conference Championship

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bengals will win the AFC Conference Championship game with 53.0% confidence.

Bengals vs Chiefs Spread Prediction for AFC Conference Championship

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread in the AFC Conference Championship with 59.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bengals and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

  • Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Tyler Boyd has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+6.55 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Joe Burrow has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Joe Burrow has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.70 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 51% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Bengals

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Travis Kelce +750
Ja'Marr Chase +750
Joe Mixon +750
Isiah Pacheco +1100
Jerrick McKinnon +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Bengals

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Travis Kelce -110
Joe Mixon -105
Ja'Marr Chase -105
Jerrick McKinnon +155
Isiah Pacheco +165

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Bengals

Player Name Over Under
Trenton Irwin 7.5 -120 7.5 -110
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 27.5 -115 27.5 -115
Joe Mixon 22.5 -120 22.5 -110
Ja’Marr Chase 83.5 -120 83.5 -110
Hayden Hurst 34.5 -110 34.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Bengals

Player Name Over Under
Joe Burrow 17.5 -120 17.5 -115
Joe Mixon 58.5 -120 58.5 -110
Isaih Pacheco 47.5 -115 47.5 -115
Samaje Perine 17.5 -110 17.5 -120
Jerick McKinnon 27.5 -120 27.5 -110
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+6.10 Units / 84% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 13-5 (+7.35 Units / 37.03% ROI).

  • Bengals are 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 13.66% ROI
  • Bengals are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4.05 Units / -20.4% ROI
  • Bengals are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 7-11 (-5.2 Units / -26.13% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 15-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 13.65% ROI
  • Chiefs are 8-10 when betting the Over for -3 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Chiefs are 10-8 when betting the Under for +1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Bengals are undefeated (16-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

The Bengals are undefeated (11-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

The Bengals are undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the first half this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .701.

The Bengals were undefeated (7-0) when rushing less than 25 times in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .344.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Chiefs are 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Bengals have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .550.

The Chiefs are undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .611.

The Chiefs are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 defenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .456.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs QBs have been 26 sacked this season — third-fewest in NFL. The Bengals have sacked the quarterback 30 times this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 46.2% in the fourth quarter this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Bengals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 50.0% in the 4th quarter this season — second-worst in NFL.

Chiefs TEs had 96.0 receiving yards per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL. The Bengals allowed an average of 72.7 receiving yards per game to TEs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have 36 touchdown passes this season — second-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 33 passing TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Bengals have averaged 2.1 passing TDs per game this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 1.9 passing touchdowns per game this season — worst in NFL.

The Bengals threw 18 touchdown passes in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — tied for most in NFL. The Chiefs allowed 14 passing TDs in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — tied for second-most in NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for AFC Conference Championship

The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Bengals have run 58% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Bengals have thrown for 36 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bengals have 33 TDs that were 20+ yards since the 2021 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for AFC Conference Championship

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 43% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs have thrown for 41 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 57% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs have run 19% of their plays in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for AFC Conference Championship

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for AFC Conference Championship

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 53% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 27 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense sacked opponents 6 times in Week 18 — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.