Bengals vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • The Bengals (10-4) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Patriots (7-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (7-7) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough.

The Bengals are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Bengals vs. Patriots Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 16

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bengals-3 -11041.5 -110-160
Patriots +3 -11041.5 -110+135

Bengals vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this Week 16 game with 58.8% confidence.

Bengals vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread this Week 16 with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bengals and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Joe Burrow has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Tyler Boyd has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Joe Mixon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Bengals

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Rhamondre Stevenson +100
Ja'Marr Chase +110
Joe Mixon +110
Tee Higgins +150
Damien Harris +155

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Bengals

Player Name Over Under
Tee Higgins 61.5 -110 61.5 -120
Nelson Agholor 34.5 -110 34.5 -120
Jakobi Meyers 44.5 -115 44.5 -120
Rhamondre Stevenson 28.5 -115 28.5 -115
Tyler Boyd 34.5 -115 34.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Bengals

Player Name Over Under
Joe Burrow 10.5 -120 10.5 -110
Joe Mixon 62.5 -110 62.5 -120
Mac Jones 8.5 -110 8.5 -120
Rhamondre Stevenson 59.5 -115 59.5 -115
Samaje Perine 21.5 -110 21.5 -120
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the Spread in 18 of their last 21 games (+14.55 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 2H Spread in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.70 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+4.05 Units / 33% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 11-3 (+7.55 Units / 48.71% ROI).

  • Bengals are 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 2.83% ROI
  • Bengals are 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.85 Units / -24.92% ROI
  • Bengals are 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.5 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 7-6 (+0.55 Units / 3.65% ROI).

  • Patriots are 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -13.13% ROI
  • Patriots are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
  • Patriots are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Bengals are undefeated (13-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .589.

The Bengals are 8-3 (.727) when not forcing a turnover since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .273.

The Bengals are undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .595.

The Bengals are 6-3 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .318.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Patriots are winless (0-4) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .391.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when committing 2 or more turnovers this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .302.

The Patriots are winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .283.

The Patriots are winless (0-7) when having a TO margin of -2 or worse since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .134.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have 12 touchdown passes this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 15 passing TDs this season — fifth-fewest in NFL.

Patriots TEs have averaged 7.2 yards after the catch since Week 12 — fourth-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 7.2 yards after catch per reception to TEs since Week 12 — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have thrown for 11.4 yards per attempt on passes up the middle since Week 12 — second-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 11.7 yards per dropback when defending passes up the middle since Week 12 — third-worst in NFL.

Bengals RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 7.7% of 274 carries this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 10+ yards on just 7.5% of carries to RBs this season — third-best in NFL.

Bengals TEs have averaged just 3.8 yards after the catch this season — third-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 4.1 yards after catch per reception to TEs this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

The Bengals are averaging just 1.7 yards per carry on 3rd and short this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 2.4 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short this season — tied for second-best in NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Bengals have run 61% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bengals started 5 drives inside opposing territory in Week 15 — most in NFL.

The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Bengals have run 67% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Patriots have converted first downs on just 50 of 231 plays (22%) in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 28% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 19% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 15 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Bengals defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 20% of pass attempts (21/103) when they have pressured the QB this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Bengals defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (22/504) this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Patriots defense missed 9 tackles in Week 14 — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.