The NFL season finally returns this weekend with a fresh lineup of games. If you’re like me, you’ve spent this week hunting for the best NFL spreads on the board.
One great resource is my colleague, Nick Hennion, who has done some great work handicapping the Week 1 games. You can check out his NFL Week 1 best bets here.
This season, I’m looking forward to supplementing his work with some contest-specific betting thoughts.
While most bettors are just looking for good analysis on game lines, a small minority are playing in ATS contests – maybe a work pool, or a competition among friends, or even something with higher stakes.
If your contest pool is big enough, the games you choose to target are just as important as the teams you choose to back. That’s because of the game theory principles in play in any contest, where asymmetric decision-making is an important component of actually winning.
So, yes, I like these bets below. But more importantly, if you’re in a contest, these selections could be valuable zags when competing against other players.
Browns at Jaguars Prediction
Sorry, what Jaguars team are you looking at as Week 1 favorite of more than a touchdown? I’m looking at the one with the bad offensive line and the quarterback that didn’t play at all this preseason.
I was shocked to see the Jags talked up as a popular NFL Survivor pick and a semi-popular ATS bet. Jacksonville closed strong down the stretch in 2025, which is one reason why they’re a popular AFC futures target this year, but context matters. During their 9-1 run to close the 2025 regular season, they played the Raiders, the Jets, the Cardinals, and two games against the Titans. They also played Houston with Davis Mills starting.
In the offseason, Jacksonville lost arguably its best defensive player – Devin Lloyd – who went to the Panthers. On offense, Lawrence will be the Week 1 starter with no preseason reps for the first time in his career. And while the Browns’ defense doesn’t have Myles Garrett anymore, it does still have plenty of other talented players – including 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse, who came over in the Garrett trade.
There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Jacksonville laying this kind of number in Week 1, yet more than 60% of BetMGM players are on Jags -8.5 in this game. The Browns offer a great opportunity to zag with a fat spread and plenty of room for a backdoor.
Contest Prediction: Browns +8.5
Bills at Texans
This potential future playoff game will be a great watch, but plenty of bettors will be gun-shy to take a side. If they do, it’s likely the Bills odds will be the favored side – BetMGM players are betting Buffalo at a clip north of 60%.
This Bills-or-pass dynamic offers an opportunity in contests with limited selections.
I like the Texans’ side of this. These teams have played in Houston each of the last two seasons, and the Texans have won close, low-scoring games both times.
In this case, Buffalo will be working through a new coaching staff, while Houston has impressive continuity virtually everywhere that matters. CJ Stroud can put a noisy offseason of doubts behind him by cleanly running his offense and getting a third win against Josh Allen in three years.
Contest Prediction: Texans +1.5
Best Contest Bets for NFL Week 1
- Browns +8.5
- Texans +1.5
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