NFL odds price the Los Angeles Rams as the favorite to win the most regular season games.
Los Angeles, the Super Bowl odds favorite by margin, currently sits at +650 to win the most regular season games.
Next on the odds board is the Baltimore Ravens at +900. Following Baltimore, oddsmakers price 13 teams between +1000 and +2000.
Best Team in the NFL: Odds for Most Regular Season Wins
Best Team in the NFL Prediction
Dallas Cowboys (+3000) to Win Most Regular Season
The case for Dallas starts with my belief they own a better chance than their 3.2% implied probability suggests.
On paper, the schedule looks really difficult. Outside the division, Dallas plays the NFC West and AFC South. Unique games come against Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Baltimore.
But the schedule construction provided Dallas some advantages in difficult games. Let’s start with the NFC East games.
If you view the division as a race between Dallas and Philadelphia, the Cowboys earn some edges.
Both teams get an extra day to prepare for their Week 7 MNF meeting in Philly. Later in the season, the Cowboys play the Eagles on Thanksgiving.
Critically, it’s the third straight home game for the Cowboys. Brian Schottenheimer’s side also gets the Eagles traveling for a short-week road game.
After that Eagles game, Dallas gets a mini bye week before heading to Seattle, who plays Sunday. After a Week 14 bye, Dallas travels to play the Rams with a +6 rest advantage.
It leads me to believe a ceiling case exists with the Cowboys, who struggled on defense last year. However, metrics should be taken with a slight grain of salt.
DeMarvion Overshown missed a ton of time while Dallas accumulated myriad secondary injuries. Per FTN Fantasy, Dallas ranked 24th in defensive back health last year.
I’m not here to say the Cowboys defense is good. However, there are reasons to believe they’ll improve under new defensive coordinator Christian Parker.
Given their offensive prowess last year (8th in DVOA), I could see Dallas taking a massive jump. For a team favored in 11 lookahead lines, I like Dallas potentially reaching 14 wins.
If they reach that number, I predict they’re alive for the best regular season record at a higher rate than their odds imply.
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