Big underdogs aren’t common in Week 1 NFL betting.
Only 17.5 of all Week 1 games since 2005 had a closing spread of at least seven points, by far the lowest percentage of any week. Upsets in these Week 1 games, however, are more common than in all but two other weeks.
There was only one big underdog in Week 1 last season. The New England Patriots (+8) shocked the Cincinnati Bengals for the 13th win for big dogs (13-42-1) since 2005. It was the Patriots 11th such game over that time — two as the underdog and nine as the favorite. No other team has played in more than seven such games.
The Patriots’ win is tied for the sixth-biggest Week 1 upset over the last 20 years:
| Spread | Year | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2018 | Bucs (+10) at Saints | 48-40 |
| 10 | 2008 | Bears (+10) at Colts | 29-13 |
| 9.5 | 2012 | Redskins (+9.5) at Saints | 40-32 |
| 9.5 | 2008 | Panthers (+9.5) at Chargers | 26-24 |
| 9 | 2016 | Patriots (+9) at Cardinals | 23-21 |
| 8 | 2024 | Patriots (+8) at Bengals | 16-10 |
| 8 | 2017 | Chiefs (+8) at Patriots | 42-27 |
| 7.5 | 2007 | Titans (+7.5) at Jaguars | 13-10 |
| 7 | 2022 | Steelers (+7) at Bengals | 23-20 |
| 7 | 2020 | Colts at Jaguars (+7) | 27-20 |
| 7 | 2018 | Jets (+7) at Lions | 48-17 |
| 7 | 2014 | Bills (+7) at Bears | 23-20 |
| 7 | 2005 | Saints (+7) at Panthers | 23-20 |
Only five teams haven’t been a big Week 1 underdog the last 20 years:
- Atlanta Falcons
- Denver Broncos
- Green Bay Packers
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Philadelphia Eagles
Barring stunning line movement, that won’t change this year. Only the Falcons and Chargers are underdogs, though both are short dogs. Three games have a spread of at least seven points:
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-7)
- Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
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