- The Bills (11-3) are -9.5 point favorites vs the Bears (3-11)
- Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (11-3) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (3-11) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Chicago.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Bears Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 16
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -450 |
| Bears | +8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +333 |
Bills vs. Bears Prediction for Week 16
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 16 game with 79.8% confidence.
Bills vs Bears Spread Prediction for Week 16
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread this Week 16 with 51.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Bears, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 7 away games (+7.15 Units / 86% ROI)
- Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Bills
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | +500 |
| Gabriel Davis | +800 |
| Justin Fields | +800 |
| Josh Allen | +900 |
| David Montgomery | +900 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Bills
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | -105 |
| Justin Fields | +110 |
| David Montgomery | +125 |
| Devin Singletary | +150 |
| Gabriel Davis | +170 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 10.5 -120 | 10.5 -110 |
| Stefon Diggs | 63.5 -115 | 63.5 -115 |
| Devin Singletary | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -120 |
| Gabriel Davis | 36.5 -115 | 36.5 -115 |
| Byron Pringle | 20.5 -115 | 20.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
| David Montgomery | 49.5 -110 | 49.5 -120 |
| Justin Fields | 74.5 -115 | 74.5 -115 |
| Devin Singletary | 48.5 -110 | 48.5 -120 |
| Khalil Herbert | 26.5 -110 | 26.5 -120 |
Bills Best Bets for Week 16:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 92% ROI)
Bears Best Bets for Week 16:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 6-7 (-1.7 Units / -11% ROI).
- Bills are 11-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 1.57% ROI
- Bills are 4-10 when betting the Over for -7 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Bills are 10-4 when betting the Under for +5.6 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 5-8 (-3.9 Units / -25.16% ROI).
- Bears are 3-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -33.22% ROI
- Bears are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
- Bears are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .318.
The Bills are 17-2 (.895) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .565.
The Bills are 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.
The Bills are 16-4 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .507.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Bears are 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.
The Bears are winless (0-12) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
The Bears are 2-13 (.133) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.
The Bears are 6-8 (.429) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .772.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears
Bears RBs have averaged 9.7 yards after the catch this season — second-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 8.8 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — tied for worst in NFL.
The Bears have thrown the ball just 43.9% of the time since Week 12 — fourth-lowest in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 5.7 yards per dropback since Week 12 — tied for fifth-best in NFL.
The Bills have scored on 50.6% of their drives in the first half this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed scores on 47.1% of opponent drives in the first half this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 50.6% this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 50.3% this season — worst in NFL.
The Bills have run successful plays on 45.8% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — best in NFL. The Bears have pressured opposing QBs on just 16.5% of passing plays this season — second-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 16
The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Bills have an average drive start position from the 32.9 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.5.
The Bills have run 19% of their plays in the red zone since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 16
The Bears have 92 of 226 (41%) first downs through the air this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Bears have thrown the ball 15% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/46 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bears have 134 of 226 (59%) first downs have come on the ground (59%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Bears have thrown the ball 36% of the time (300 Pass Attempts/831 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 16
The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.
The Bills defense allowed first downs on 26% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills defense allowed 0.7 TD passes per game (12/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.5.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 16
The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 42% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Bears defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (48/526) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.
The Bears defense has averaged a sack every 49.5 pass attempts (99 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.3.
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