Bills vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 10:30 AM
  • The Bills (11-3) are -9.5 point favorites vs the Bears (3-11)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (11-3) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (3-11) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Chicago.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Bills vs. Bears Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 16

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bills-8.5 -11040 -110-450
Bears +8.5 -11040 -110+333

Bills vs. Bears Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 16 game with 79.8% confidence.

Bills vs Bears Spread Prediction for Week 16

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread this Week 16 with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Bears, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 7 away games (+7.15 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.85 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 16, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 48% ROI)
  • David Montgomery has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Equanimeous St. Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Bills

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Stefon Diggs +500
Gabriel Davis +800
Justin Fields +800
Josh Allen +900
David Montgomery +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Bills

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Stefon Diggs -105
Justin Fields +110
David Montgomery +125
Devin Singletary +150
Gabriel Davis +170

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
James Cook 10.5 -120 10.5 -110
Stefon Diggs 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
Devin Singletary 9.5 -110 9.5 -120
Gabriel Davis 36.5 -115 36.5 -115
Byron Pringle 20.5 -115 20.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
James Cook 30.5 -115 30.5 -115
David Montgomery 49.5 -110 49.5 -120
Justin Fields 74.5 -115 74.5 -115
Devin Singletary 48.5 -110 48.5 -120
Khalil Herbert 26.5 -110 26.5 -120
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.20 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 6-7 (-1.7 Units / -11% ROI).

  • Bills are 11-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 1.57% ROI
  • Bills are 4-10 when betting the Over for -7 Units / -45.45% ROI
  • Bills are 10-4 when betting the Under for +5.6 Units / ROI

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 5-8 (-3.9 Units / -25.16% ROI).

  • Bears are 3-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -33.22% ROI
  • Bears are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
  • Bears are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .318.

The Bills are 17-2 (.895) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .565.

The Bills are 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.

The Bills are 16-4 (.800) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .507.

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bears are 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .432.

The Bears are winless (0-12) when losing at least one fumble since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.

The Bears are 2-13 (.133) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.

The Bears are 6-8 (.429) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .772.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears

Bears RBs have averaged 9.7 yards after the catch this season — second-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 8.8 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — tied for worst in NFL.

The Bears have thrown the ball just 43.9% of the time since Week 12 — fourth-lowest in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 5.7 yards per dropback since Week 12 — tied for fifth-best in NFL.

The Bills have scored on 50.6% of their drives in the first half this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed scores on 47.1% of opponent drives in the first half this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 50.6% this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 50.3% this season — worst in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on 45.8% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — best in NFL. The Bears have pressured opposing QBs on just 16.5% of passing plays this season — second-worst in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills have an average drive start position from the 32.9 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.5.

The Bills have run 19% of their plays in the red zone since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Bears have 92 of 226 (41%) first downs through the air this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

The Bears have thrown the ball 15% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/46 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Bears have 134 of 226 (59%) first downs have come on the ground (59%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Bears have thrown the ball 36% of the time (300 Pass Attempts/831 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense allowed first downs on 26% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

The Bills defense allowed 0.7 TD passes per game (12/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.5.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 16

The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 42% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bears defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (48/526) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Bears defense has averaged a sack every 49.5 pass attempts (99 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) since Week 12 of the 2021 Season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.3.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.