- The Bills (12-3) are -1 point favorites vs the Bengals (11-4)
- Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Buffalo Bills (12-3) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) on Jan. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Cincinnati for Monday Night Football.
The Bills are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).
The Bills vs. Bengals Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 17
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -1 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -120 |
| Bengals | +1 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +100 |
Bills vs. Bengals Prediction for Week 17
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 17 game with 60.5% confidence.
Bills vs Bengals Spread Prediction for Week 17
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 17 with 62.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Bengals, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Isaiah McKenzie has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Tyler Boyd has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.30 Units / 49% ROI)
Bills Best Bets for Week 17:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 24% ROI)
Bengals Best Bets for Week 17:
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the Spread in 18 of their last 21 games (+14.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 2H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 7-7 (-0.7 Units / -4.23% ROI).
- Bills are 12-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 3.28% ROI
- Bills are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bills are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / ROI
Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 12-3 (+8.55 Units / 51.66% ROI).
- Bengals are 11-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 5.85% ROI
- Bengals are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.95 Units / -29.91% ROI
- Bengals are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 21.28% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals
The Bills are undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .319.
The Bills are 18-2 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .566.
The Bills are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — second-best in NFL. The Bengals have averaged just 1.7 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Bengals are 8-3 (.727) when not forcing a turnover since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .269.
The Bengals are undefeated (14-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .588.
The Bengals are undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .593.
The Bengals are 7-3 (.700) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .319.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals RBs have averaged 1.9 yards after contact per carry since Week 13 — fifth-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 2.1 yards after contact per carry since Week 13 — second-worst in NFL.
Bengals RBs have averaged 1.9 yards after contact per carry since Week 13 — fifth-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 2.4 yards after contact per carry to RBs since Week 13 — worst in NFL.
Bengals TEs have averaged just 3.6 yards after the catch this season — third-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 4.0 yards after catch per reception to TEs this season — fifth-best in NFL.
The Bills are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — second-best in NFL. The Bengals have averaged just 1.7 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 17
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Bills have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Bills have run 24% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for Week 17
The Bengals have run 60% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Bengals have run 66% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Bengals have 32 TDs that were 20+ yards since the 2021 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 17
The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.
The Bills defense allowed 0.7 TD passes per game (12/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.5.
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.0 (1,061 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.3.
The Bills defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (298 completions/531 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for Week 17
The Bengals defense has sacked opposing QBs just once on 65 pass attempts in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.8.
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
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