Bills vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – AFC Divisonal Playoffs

BetMGM Betting Jan 15, 2026, 8:21 AM

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Kick off for the 2024 NFL season at Empower Field at Mile High during the Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024 in Denver. (AP Photo/Bart Young)

(AP Photo/Bart Young)

The Bills are +1 point favorites vs the Broncos
Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
Watch this game on CBS | PAR+

The Buffalo Bills visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos on Jan. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Bills are betting favorites in this AFC Divisonal Playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at +1 (-115).

The Bills vs. Broncos Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Bills vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 53.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Broncos Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 54.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

Dawson Knox has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 57% ROI)
Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 64% ROI)
Ty Johnson has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 61% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 52% ROI)
Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 85% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Adam Trautman has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.65 Units / 65% ROI)
Pat Bryant has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 51% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Broncos vs Bills

Player Name	1st TD Odds
Josh Allen (BUF)	+550
James Cook (BUF)	+525
Ray Davis (BUF)	+3000
Ty Johnson (BUF)	+6000
Khalil Shakir (Buf)	+1300

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Broncos vs Bills

Player Name	Over	Under
RJ Harvey (DEN)	20.5 -110	20.5 -118
Pat Bryant (DEN)	31.5 -110	31.5 -118
Troy Franklin (DEN)	22.5 -110	22.5 -118
Marvin Mims (DEN)	14.5 -110	14.5 -120
Courtland Sutton (DEN)	49.5 -118	49.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Broncos vs Bills

Player Name	Over	Under
Bo Nix (DEN)	23.5 -115	23.5 -115
RJ Harvey (DEN)	49.5 -115	49.5 -115
Josh Allen (BUF)	37.5 -118	37.5 -110
Ty Johnson (BUF)	10.5 -120	10.5 -110
James Cook (BUF)	77.5 -110	77.5 -118

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.08 Units / 31% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.97 Units / 13% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.80 Units / 19% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 20 games (+14.75 Units / 22% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 30% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 9-9 (-0.95 Units / -4.79% ROI).

Bills are 13-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -2.21% ROI
Bills are 9-9 when betting the Over for -0.9 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bills are 9-9 when betting the Under for -0.9 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 7-10 (-3.9 Units / -20.97% ROI).

Broncos are 14-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 19.62% ROI
Broncos are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI
Broncos are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Broncos are 7-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards this season — T-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Broncos are 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Broncos are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .559.

The Broncos are 14-3 (.824) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .498.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Bills defense has allowed just 2.7 receptions per game (46/17) to TEs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The Bills defense has allowed just 170.2 receiving yards per game (2,894/17) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 225.0.

Offenses facing the Bills targeted TEs 16% of the time (76 Pass Attempts/464 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos