- The Bills are -6.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (1-1) visit FedExField to take on the Washington Commanders (2-0) on Sep. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Landover.
The Bills are betting favorites in this Week 3 matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Commanders Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 |
| Commanders | +6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +230 |
Bills vs. Commanders Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 3 game with 79.8% confidence.
Bills vs Commanders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Commanders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this Week 3 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Logan Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Bills are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -8.25% ROI
- Bills are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bills are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders went 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Commanders are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 64.29% ROI
- Commanders are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Commanders are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Bills are 7-1 (.875) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 10 passes since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
The Bills were undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .577.
The Bills are 19-2 (.905) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .571.
The Bills were 8-1 (.889) vs top 10 run defenses in the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .438.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Commanders are 10-2-1 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — sixth-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 31 times since the 2022 season — third-most in NFL.
The Commanders were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times in the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .315.
The Commanders are 6-1 (.857) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .493.
The Commanders are 1-6 (.143) after a road win since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .463.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders have 12 rushing touchdowns since the 2022 season — tied for third-fewest in NFL. The Bills have allowed 10 rushing TDs since the 2022 season — fifth-fewest in NFL.
The Commanders are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on rushes up the middle since the 2022 season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 3.5 yards per carry when defending rushes up the middle since the 2022 season — fourth-best in NFL.
The Commanders are 10-2-1 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — sixth-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 31 times since the 2022 season — third-most in NFL.
The Bills are 7-1 (.875) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 10 passes since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills committed 6 turnovers in the red zone in the 2022 season — most in NFL.
The Bills had a third down conversion rate of 50% in the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills have committed 6 turnovers in the red zone since the 2022 season — most in NFL.
The Bills have run successful plays on 55% of plays in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders ran successful plays on 33% of plays in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Commanders have started 5 drives inside opposing territory this season — tied for most in NFL.
The Commanders started 66 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 2022 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Commanders have a third down conversion rate of 30% this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed an average of 3.0 yards after contact per carry (41 carries) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.9.
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.0 (1,147 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 89.9.
The Bills defense has allowed an average of 3.3 yards after contact per carry (37 carries) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.0.
Offenses facing the Bills targeted RBs 35% of the time (16 Pass Attempts/46 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Commanders defense allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 514 attempts (3%) in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.
The Commanders defense has allowed 15 touchdown receptions to RBs since the 2021 season — most in NFL.
The Commanders defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 576 attempts (3%) since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.
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