Bills vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 09, 2025, 5:48 AM

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A general overall interior view of Mercedes-Benz Stadium during an NFL football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)

(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)

The Bills are -4.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
Total (Over/Under): 50 points
Watch this game on ESPN | ESPD

The Buffalo Bills (4-1-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-2-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Bills vs. Falcons Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bills	-4.5 -110	50 -110	-225
Falcons	+4.5 -110	50 -110	185

Bills vs. Falcons Prediction

The winning team model predicts the will win this game with confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Falcons Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the will cover the spread with confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

Josh Allen has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 42% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 62% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.70 Units / 77% ROI)
Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)
Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Ray-Ray McCloud has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Tyler Allgeier has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.95 Units / 22% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Bills

Player Name	Over	Under
Drake London (ATL)	67.5 -115	67.5 -115
Kyle Pitts (ATL)	38.5 -115	38.5 -115
Bijan Robinson (ATL)	26.5 -118	26.5 -110
Khalil Shakir (BUF)	45.5 -110	45.5 -118
Keon Coleman (BUF)	38.5 -110	38.5 -118

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Bills

Player Name	Over	Under
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL)	6.5 -125	6.5 -105
Josh Allen (BUF)	33.5 -115	33.5 -115
Bijan Robinson (ATL)	77.5 -110	77.5 -118
James Cook (BUF)	75.5 -110	75.5 -118

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+12.02 Units / 33% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.37 Units / 40% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Team Total Over in their last 9 away games (+9.15 Units / 82% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 60% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.65 Units / 13% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.65 Units / 11% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Bills are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -1.09% ROI
Bills are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Bills are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI).

Falcons are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -15.25% ROI
Falcons are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Falcons are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have run successful plays on 59% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Falcons have gone three and out on 12% of their drives since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 6% of the time (1 Pass Attempts/17 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 54% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Falcons defense has allowed 3.1 yards after the catch (186 RAC / 60 receptions) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Falcons defense has allowed 4 TDs in the red zone this season — T-fewest in NFL.

The Falcons defense has allowed 540 passing yards this season — fewest in NFL.

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 62% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons