Bills vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13, TNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 01, 2022, 12:00 PM
  • The Patriots (6-5) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Bills (8-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on Amazon Prime Video

The Buffalo Bills (8-3) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (6-5) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Foxborough for Thursday Night Football.

The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).

The Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bills+15.5 -11043.5 -110-190
Patriots-15.5 -11043.5 -110+155

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 13 game with 72.8% confidence.

Bills vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 13 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Devin Singletary has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.55 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Damien Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.10 Units / 28% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Bills

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Rhamondre Stevenson +550
Stefon Diggs +550
Devin Singletary +700
Gabriel Davis +900
Josh Allen +1000

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Bills

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Rhamondre Stevenson -140
Stefon Diggs -115
Devin Singletary +125
Gabriel Davis +150
Josh Allen +180

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
Devin Singletary 11.5 -115 11.5 -115
Dawson Knox 32.5 -120 32.5 -110
Stefon Diggs 81.5 -115 81.5 -115
Jonnu Smith 13.5 -115 13.5 -115
Gabriel Davis 48.5 -120 48.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
Isaiah McKenzie 2.5 -120 2.5 -105
James Cook 15.5 -115 15.5 -115
Rhamondre Stevenson 62.5 -115 62.5 -120
Devin Singletary 52.5 -110 52.5 -120
Mac Jones 8.5 -120 8.5 -110
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 13 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 38% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.12% ROI).

  • Bills are 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -5.41% ROI
  • Bills are 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
  • Bills are 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 6-4 (+1.75 Units / 14.89% ROI).

  • Patriots are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -9.92% ROI
  • Patriots are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Patriots are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Bills are winless (0-2) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .267.

The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — sixth-best in NFL.

The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — fourth-most in NFL. The Bills are 15-4 (.789) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .552.

The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .304.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .358.

The Patriots are 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .562.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have scored just 3.5 points per Red Zone drive since Week 9 — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have allowed just 3.5 points per Red Zone drive since Week 9 — fourth-best in NFL. Patriots RBs have gained 175 yards after catch since Week 9 — fifth-most in NFL. The Bills have allowed 533 yards after catch since Week 9 — fourth-most in NFL.

The Bills have scored just 3.8 points per Red Zone drive this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — fourth-most in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Bills have run 19% of their plays in the red zone since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills converted first downs on 103 of 295 plays (35%) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 37% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Patriots are averaging 29.0 drives per TD in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.2.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 28% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Patriots ran the ball on 24% of plays (13 carries/55 plays) in Week 12 — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 72.5 (920 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.7.

The Bills defense allowed 0.7 TD passes per game (12/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.5.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 13

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 75.6 (900 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.7.

The Patriots defense has allowed 11 rushing TDs on 106 carries (9.6 Carries Per TD) in the red zone since the 2021 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.