- The Patriots (6-5) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Bills (8-3)
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch the game on Amazon Prime Video
The Buffalo Bills (8-3) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (6-5) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Foxborough for Thursday Night Football.
The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 13
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | +15.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -190 |
| Patriots | -15.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +155 |
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 13
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 13 game with 72.8% confidence.
Bills vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 13
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 13 with 54.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Devin Singletary has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Damien Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.10 Units / 28% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +550 |
| Stefon Diggs | +550 |
| Devin Singletary | +700 |
| Gabriel Davis | +900 |
| Josh Allen | +1000 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | -140 |
| Stefon Diggs | -115 |
| Devin Singletary | +125 |
| Gabriel Davis | +150 |
| Josh Allen | +180 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 11.5 -115 | 11.5 -115 |
| Dawson Knox | 32.5 -120 | 32.5 -110 |
| Stefon Diggs | 81.5 -115 | 81.5 -115 |
| Jonnu Smith | 13.5 -115 | 13.5 -115 |
| Gabriel Davis | 48.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2.5 -120 | 2.5 -105 |
| James Cook | 15.5 -115 | 15.5 -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 62.5 -115 | 62.5 -120 |
| Devin Singletary | 52.5 -110 | 52.5 -120 |
| Mac Jones | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -110 |
Bills Best Bets for Week 13:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 13 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets for Week 13:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 58% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.12% ROI).
- Bills are 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -5.41% ROI
- Bills are 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
- Bills are 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 6-4 (+1.75 Units / 14.89% ROI).
- Patriots are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -9.92% ROI
- Patriots are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
- Patriots are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are winless (0-2) when scoring less than 22 points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .267.
The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — sixth-best in NFL.
The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — fourth-most in NFL. The Bills are 15-4 (.789) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .552.
The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .304.
The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .358.
The Patriots are 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .562.
The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have scored just 3.5 points per Red Zone drive since Week 9 — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
The Bills have allowed just 3.5 points per Red Zone drive since Week 9 — fourth-best in NFL. Patriots RBs have gained 175 yards after catch since Week 9 — fifth-most in NFL. The Bills have allowed 533 yards after catch since Week 9 — fourth-most in NFL.
The Bills have scored just 3.8 points per Red Zone drive this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Bills are 8-2 (.800) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — fourth-most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 13
The Bills have run 19% of their plays in the red zone since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Bills converted first downs on 103 of 295 plays (35%) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 37% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 13
The Patriots are averaging 29.0 drives per TD in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.2.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 28% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Patriots ran the ball on 24% of plays (13 carries/55 plays) in Week 12 — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 13
The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.
The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 72.5 (920 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.7.
The Bills defense allowed 0.7 TD passes per game (12/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.5.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 13
The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of just 75.6 (900 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.7.
The Patriots defense has allowed 11 rushing TDs on 106 carries (9.6 Carries Per TD) in the red zone since the 2021 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.
The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.
The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.
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