- The Bills are -1 point favorites vs the Texans
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (0-0-0) visit Reliant Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (0-0-0) on Sep. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Houston, TX.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).
The Bills vs. Texans Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -1 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -120 |
| Texans | +1 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +100 |
Bills vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 50.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Dawson Knox has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Ty Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.45 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nico Collins has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jaylin Noel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Woody Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Bills
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| James Cook | -115 |
| David Montgomery | -110 |
| Josh Allen | +120 |
| Nico Collins | +150 |
| DJ Moore | +195 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 68.5 -115 | 68.5 -115 |
| DJ Moore | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 37.5 -111 | 37.5 -118 |
| Khalil Shakir | 35.5 -111 | 35.5 -118 |
| Dalton Schultz | 34.5 -115 | 34.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 74.5 -115 | 74.5 -115 |
| David Montgomery | 55.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen | 31.5 -115 | 31.5 -115 |
| Woody Marks | 30.5 -111 | 30.5 -120 |
| C.J. Stroud | 10.5 -110 | 10.5 -120 |
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Bills were 12-0 (1.000) when scoring 22 or more points (T-best in NFL) and 0-5 (.000) when scoring less than 22 points last season (T-lowest in NFL).
The Bills were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .222.
The Bills are 25-1 (.962) when scoring 22 or more points (best in NFL) and 0-8 (.000) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2024 season (T-lowest in NFL).
The Bills were 10-2 (.833) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Texans were 7-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — T-best in NFL. The Bills allowed an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Texans were 7-2 (.778) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .497.
The Texans were 11-4 (.733) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .546.
The Texans were 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .418.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
The Texans were successful on just 21.1% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 4th-lowest in NFL. The Bills allowed a success rate of just 9.1% on pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Texans went three and out on 27.4% of their drives in the second half last season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Bills forced three and outs on 29.2% of opponent drives in the second half last season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Texans were 7-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — T-best in NFL. The Bills allowed an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Bills allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 0% of pass attempts last week — best in NFL. The Texans had pressured opposing QBs on just 14.3% of passing plays last week — T-3rd-lowest in NFL.
The Bills threw the ball just 45.7% of the time last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL. The Texans allowed just 5.8 yards per dropback last season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
Bills RBs had 45.5 receiving yards per game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Texans averaged 42.2 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-highest in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Bills converted late downs on 9 of 126 plays (7%) with over 10 yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.
The Bills threw the ball 33% of the time (160 Pass Attempts/480 plays) on 1st down last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bills threw the ball 46% of the time (495 Pass Attempts/1,082 plays) last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 38% of rush attempts last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 38% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 38% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Bills defense allowed just 2.7 receptions per game (46/17) to TEs last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Bills defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 77% on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
Only 36% of the plays ran against the Texans were in their own territory last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Texans defense forced three and outs on 36% of opponent drives in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Texans defense allowed scores on 27% of opponent drives (51/186) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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