- The Bills are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Ravens.
- The Bills have won each of their last 10 home games.
- My Bills vs Ravens prediction is to use the Ravens as a teaser leg.
The marquee matchup for Week 1 of the NFL season pits the Bills against the Ravens on SNF.
This marks a rematch of the divisional round from January, which Buffalo won 27-25. That game saw the Bills close at +1.5 with oddsmakers now flipping the spread for Week 1.
Historically, Lamar Jackson has excelled for bettors as a market underdog. Since joining the league, the two-time NFL MVP is 12-2 ATS as an underdog.
Bet on Bills vs. Ravens and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Bills vs. Ravens: NFL Week 1 Odds
Bills vs. Ravens Prediction
Based on both Jackson’s record as an underdog and John Harbaugh’s performance against a teaser, my Bills vs Ravens prediction is to tease Baltimore to +7.5.
For a pairing, I’ll lift the Raiders up from +3 to +9 against the Patriots. For that analysis, head to my Patriots vs Raiders prediction.
Read More: What is a Wong Teaser?
I already mentioned Jackson’s near-flawless record as an underdog. Where he is flawless is against a six-point teaser: Jackson is 14-0 in that spot when he’s an underdog.
Harbaugh, who possesses a larger sample size as an underdog, also performs strongly for bettors in that situation.
The Ravens’ head coach is 46-32-3 ATS as a market pup along with 65-15 against a six-point teaser.
When Harbaugh is listed between +1 and +2.5, he’s only 14-11 ATS. However, he posted a near-perfect 22-3 record against a six-point teaser.
From a matchup standpoint, the divisional round taught me that Buffalo couldn’t stop Baltimore’s offense, barring a turnover.
Baltimore never punted in the divisional round game. Excluding a kneel down to end the first half, Baltimore either scored or turned the ball over on every drive.
While Buffalo added some defensive pieces during the offseason, it still likely isn’t enough to stop a historically good Ravens offense.
Last season, Baltimore led the league in offensive DVOA against the fifth-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Comparatively, the Bills ranked 11th in defensive DVOA against the 23rd-hardest set of offenses.
Plus, the Bills played only three games against teams fifth or better in total DVOA last season.
Sean McDermott’s side failed to cover this teaser in all three games (twice against Baltimore, once at Detroit).
Baltimore stayed within this number in every game last season as well. For those reasons, take the Ravens up to +7.5 rather than picking a side.
Betting Bills vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting
*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 30% | 11% | 76% | 75% |
| Bills | 70% | 89% | 24% | 25% |
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