Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 27, 2022, 1:18 PM
  • The Chiefs (12-3) are -13.5 point favorites vs the Broncos (4-11)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Denver Broncos (4-11) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (12-3) on Jan. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 17

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Broncos+13.5 -11045 -110+550
Chiefs -13.5 -11045 -110-800

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 17

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 17 game with 87.0% confidence.

Broncos vs Chiefs Spread Prediction for Week 17

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread this Week 17 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Broncos and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Edmonds has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Latavius Murray has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Chase Edmonds has hit the Carries Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 17, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos have gone 6-9 (-4.05 Units / -24.32% ROI).

  • Broncos are 4-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -46.54% ROI
  • Broncos are 4-11 when betting the Over for -8.15 Units / -49.24% ROI
  • Broncos are 11-4 when betting the Under for +6.6 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 6-9 (-4 Units / -24.1% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 12-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 12.33% ROI
  • Chiefs are 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
  • Chiefs are 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos are winless (0-7) on the road this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.

The Broncos are 3-13 (.188) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Broncos are winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .319.

The Broncos are winless (0-12) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .274.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Chiefs are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .553.

The Chiefs are undefeated (6-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .607.

The Chiefs are 6-2 (.750) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .319.

The Chiefs are 8-5 (.615) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .214.

Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs TEs have 109.2 receiving yards per game this season — best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed an average of62.4 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Chiefs TEs have averaged 12.0 targets per game this season — highest in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 5.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Chiefs TEs have 132 receptions in 15 games (8.8 per game) this season — best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 5.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Broncos have been successful on just 37.1% of plays they have run since Week 13 — third-worst in NFL. Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 37.8% of plays since Week 13 — third-best in NFL.

The Broncos have run successful plays on just 30.6% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since Week 13 — fourth-worst in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on just 39.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since Week 13 — second-best in NFL.

Broncos QBs have been 57 sacked this season — most in NFL. The Chiefs have sacked the quarterback 45 times this season — fourth-most in NFL.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Broncos have started 60 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Broncos have started 13 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half this season — most in NFL.

The Broncos have started 19 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Broncos have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 34 of 72 plays (47%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 43% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 53% of plays in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Broncos defense has allowed 115.6 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 158.4.

The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 58% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Broncos defense has allowed an average of 13.8 fantasy points per game as a unit to WRs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20.9.

The Broncos defense has allowed just 9.6 yards per completion (3,193 yards/333 completions) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 11.0.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 17

The Chiefs defense has allowed 26 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 26 touchdown receptions in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 54% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.