- The Chiefs are +13 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Denver Broncos (12-3-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9-0) on Dec. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +13 (-105).
The Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 77.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Receptions Over in his last 6 away games (+6.35 Units / 86% ROI)
- RJ Harvey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Marquise Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +1800 |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | +425 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | +2200 |
| Tyler Badie (DEN) | +3300 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | +525 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 4.5 -118 | 4.5 -110 |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 16.5 -115 | 16.5 -118 |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 38.5 +100 | 38.5 -135 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 11.5 -120 | 11.5 -110 |
| Marvin Mims (DEN) | 17.5 -118 | 17.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Oladokun (KC) | 16.5 -110 | 16.5 -120 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 35.5 -110 | 35.5 -118 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 25.5 -110 | 25.5 -118 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -110 |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 48.5 -110 | 48.5 -118 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.49 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 6-9 (-3.8 Units / -23.17% ROI).
- Broncos are 12-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 25.39% ROI
- Broncos are 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
- Broncos are 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 5-10 (-6 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Chiefs are 6-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.35 Units / -27.31% ROI
- Chiefs are 4-11 when betting the Over for -8.1 Units / -49.09% ROI
- Chiefs are 11-4 when betting the Under for +6.6 Units / 40% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos have averaged just 5.2 yards per play on play action passes this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Broncos have started 50 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — most in NFL.
The Broncos have run the ball on 20% of plays (39 carries/200 plays) on 3rd down this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Broncos started 6 drives inside their own 20 yard line in Week 16 — 2nd-most in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chiefs defense has allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 21% in short yardage situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Chiefs defense has blitzed on 18% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 9.9 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (111 completions/150 attempts) on 1st down this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 67%.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs defense has allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 21% in short yardage situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Chiefs defense has blitzed on 18% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 9.9 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (111 completions/150 attempts) on 1st down this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 67%.
The Broncos have averaged just 5.2 yards per play on play action passes this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Broncos have started 50 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — most in NFL.
The Broncos have run the ball on 20% of plays (39 carries/200 plays) on 3rd down this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Broncos started 6 drives inside their own 20 yard line in Week 16 — 2nd-most in NFL.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos have averaged just 5.2 yards per play on play action passes this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Broncos have started 50 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — most in NFL.
The Broncos have run the ball on 20% of plays (39 carries/200 plays) on 3rd down this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Broncos started 6 drives inside their own 20 yard line in Week 16 — 2nd-most in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 21% in short yardage situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Chiefs defense has blitzed on 18% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 9.9 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (111 completions/150 attempts) on 1st down this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 67%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos have averaged just 5.2 yards per play on play action passes this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Broncos have started 50 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — most in NFL.
The Broncos have run the ball on 20% of plays (39 carries/200 plays) on 3rd down this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Broncos started 6 drives inside their own 20 yard line in Week 16 — 2nd-most in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 21% in short yardage situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Chiefs defense has blitzed on 18% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Chiefs defense have allowed 9.9 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (111 completions/150 attempts) on 1st down this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 67%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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