In failing to cover +2.5 in a 7-point loss to the New York Jets in Week 7, the Denver Broncos dropped to 2-5 against the spread this season, tying them with the Carolina Panthers for the NFL’s worst ATS record and putting them on pace for their worst ATS record since going 4-11-1 in 2017.
Hours after the loss, the Broncos opened as a 3.5-point underdog against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in Week 8. Here are NFL betting trends for the matchup:
Scoring Droughts
When the Broncos visited the Raiders in Week 4, it was the first game this season in which a team entered scoring fewer than 20 points in three straight previous games.
The Broncos didn’t cover as a 2.5-point road favorite, which was just the 34th ATS loss in 84 games since 2019 for teams that failed to score 20 points in each of their three previous games.
Four weeks later, those teams are now 3-2 ATS this season – including 2-1 in Week 7 as the Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders covered, while the Miami Dolphins didn’t – and 52-35 (.598) since 2018.
The Broncos haven’t scored more than 20 points in any of their previous three games.
Wembley Unders
The under hit in four of the first five NFL games played at Wembley Stadium from 2007-11, including the Broncos’ 24-16 loss – the total closed at 41 – to the San Francisco 49ers in 2010.
The under hit in just two of the next 12 games at Wembley from 2012 through September 2017, including none of the three Jaguars’ games in that time.
But since the New Orleans Saints held the Miami Dolphins to 186 total yards in a 20-0 win – the total closed at 51.5 – in October 2017, the under hasn’t missed at Wembley. It’s on a six-game winning streak.
Moneyline Underdogs
Short-to-moderate (+100 to +225) road and neutral-site moneyline underdogs dominated in 2021; they went 45-34-1 for an ROI of 39.1%.
Those underdogs aren’t dominating again in 2022, but they’re off to a strong start.
Through Week 7, they’re 17-20 for an ROI of 18.5%. Most recently, they went 2-1 last week as the New York Giants (+145) and Seattle Seahawks (+180) won, while the Indianapolis Colts (+120) lost.
As of Monday, the Broncos are +155 in NFL odds.
