Broncos vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:08 AM
  • The Raiders (0-3) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Broncos (2-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Denver Broncos (2-1) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (0-3) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Las Vegas.

The Raiders are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Broncos vs. Raiders Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Broncos vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Broncos+2.5 -10545.5 -110+125
Raiders -2.5 -11545.5 -110-150

Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Raiders will win this Week 4 game with 58.8% confidence.

Broncos vs Raiders Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread this Week 4 with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Broncos and Raiders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Russell Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Albert Okwuegbunam has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Interceptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfrow has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Raiders vs Broncos

Player Name Over Under
Davante Adams 76.5 -115 76.5 -115
Darren Waller 47.5 -110 47.5 -115
Courtland Sutton 67.5 -115 67.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Raiders vs Broncos

Player Name Over Under
Javonte Williams 51.5 -115 51.5 -115
Josh Jacobs 61.5 -115 61.5 -115
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have scored last in their last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 88% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have scored last in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.95 Units / 55% ROI)

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Broncos are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -8.52% ROI
  • Broncos are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
  • Broncos are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders have gone 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Raiders are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -100% ROI
  • Raiders are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Raiders are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Broncos are winless (0-3) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .264.

The Broncos are winless (0-6) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .177.

The Broncos are winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .272.

The Broncos are 2-8 (.200) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2021 season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .373.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Raiders are 4-1 (.800) when getting 4 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .282.

The Raiders are 6-1 (.857) when passing for more than 300 yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

The Raiders are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .672.

The Raiders are 2-4 (.333) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .177.

Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders had a third down conversion rate of just 8.3% last week — worst in NFL. The Broncos defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 10.0% in Week 3 — second-best in NFL.

The Raiders have scored just 4.1 points per Red Zone drive since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive since the 2021 season — tied for second-best in NFL.

The Raiders have thrown for 11.6 yards per attempt on passes up the middle since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 9.2 yards per dropback when defending passes up the middle since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Broncos RBs have averaged 11.7 targets per game this season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 6.3 receptions per game to RBs this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Broncos RBs have 60.0 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Raiders have averaged 62.3 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs this season — second-worst in NFL.

Broncos TEs have 116 receptions in 20 games (5.8 per game) since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 5.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Broncos have run successful plays on 26% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Broncos went three and out on 64% of their drives in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Broncos have started 5 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 27% of pass attempts in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Raiders converted first downs on just 36 of 73 plays (49%) on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

The Raiders ran 42% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Raiders have run the ball on 9% of plays (3 carries/34 plays) on 3rd down this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Raiders have converted first downs on just 76 of 149 plays (51%) on 3rd and short since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 25% of plays in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 58% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 26% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Broncos defense allowed just 6.9 points per game to opposing offenses (117 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Raiders defense has averaged a sack every 56.0 pass attempts (112 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 15.7.

The Raiders defense has intercepted 8 of 716 attempts (89.5 pass attempts per int.) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.8.

The Raiders defense allowed first downs on 81% of pass attempts on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Raiders defense allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.