Broncos vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:21 PM

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A detail view of a Houston Texans helmet on the sideline prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

(AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

The Broncos are +1.5 point favorites vs the Texans
Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Denver Broncos (6-2-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (3-4-0) on Nov. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +1.5 (-110).

The Broncos vs. Texans Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Broncos vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Broncos	+1.5 -110	39.5 -110	105
Texans	-1.5 -110	39.5 -110	-125

Broncos vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 51.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Broncos vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today

J.K. Dobbins has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 away games (+7.25 Units / 76% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 34% ROI)
J.K. Dobbins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
J.K. Dobbins has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
Bo Nix has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 39% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Dalton Schultz has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 62% ROI)
Dalton Schultz has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.70 Units / 22% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.69 Units / 17% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.14 Units / 50% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.55 Units / 14% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.20 Units / 11% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 3-5 (-2.4 Units / -27.59% ROI).

Broncos are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 20.91% ROI
Broncos are 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Broncos are 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 3-4 (-1.45 Units / -18.71% ROI).

Texans are 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -13.22% ROI
Texans are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -31.17% ROI
Texans are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 23.38% ROI

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Broncos have run 31% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Broncos have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Broncos have averaged -0.76 epa per play on first drive of the game since Week 5 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Broncos have allowed a QB Hit on 10% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Texans have run 26% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Texans have scored on 17% of their drives (3/18) in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Texans started 5 drives inside their own 20 yard line in Week 8 — most in NFL.

The Texans have run 9% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans